Has theresa may snatched victory for her brexit deal from the jaws of defeat? | thearticle

Whisper it, but Theresa May might actually be on the verge of victory. It seemed unthinkable just this weekend, but the tide now seems to have turned slightly in her favour. Speaking on

Monday on his fortnightly podcast for ConservativeHome, Jacob Rees-Mogg, head of the hard-Brexit supporting European Research Group (ERG), indicated that he would now be backing the Prime

Minister’s proposed withdrawal agreement. He said that the choice had become that deal or no Brexit. “Mrs May’s deal is better than not leaving at all,” he concluded. Dominic Cummings,

architect of the Leave campaign, seems to have come to a similar conclusion. He wrote on his blog today: “Don’t worry about the so-called ‘permanent’ commitments this historically abysmal

Cabinet are trying to make on our behalf. They are not ‘permanent’ and a serious government — one not cowed by officials and their bullshit ‘legal advice’ with which they have herded

ministers like sheep — will dispense with these commitments and any domestic law enforcing them.” That seems to me to be saying: get this deal passed, get Brexit done, and we will fix the

details later. My understanding is that Cummings’s former boss, the Environment Secretary Michael Gove, has always taken a similar view. (It’s worth noting that Cummings doesn’t have many

kind words about the ERG, some of whose members he describes as a “narcissist-delusional subset”.) Boris Johnson, too, seems to be preparing himself for an almighty U-turn to back the Prime

Minister’s proposal. He told a Telegraph event yesterday that “if we vote it down again there is an appreciable and growing sense that we will not leave at all. That is the risk.” The

momentum shifted, albeit only slightly, when Mrs May’s deal was put to a second Meaningful Vote. A crushing defeat, yes, but significantly less than before. Some Tory MPs had changed sides,

coming around to back the deal. One of the switching MPs, a prominent backbencher, told me shortly after the vote that they had changed their position because it was “five minutes to

midnight” and an anxious public wanted Brexit done. He was also happier as a result of some of the changes made to the backstop. Former Brexit Secretary David Davis was another significant

figure who changed sides at that point. Today, at Prime Minister’s Questions, Mrs May seemed almost confident again. She lashed out at Jeremy Corbyn, cheered on by the MPs behind her. That

vocal backing may be akin to offering a death-row inmate a final meal of their choice, but after weeks of glum faces and muffled cheers the level of support was noticeable. There are, as

there have been throughout, a large number of caveats. MPs have now clearly gained some level of dominance over the Brexit process. We do not know quite what will happen following today’s

Commons’ indicative votes, but that is not in the Government’s hands. It may be impossible for the Government to ever fully wrest that control back. Crucially, the DUP still seems unlikely

to shift and come to support the deal, even saying it would prefer a longer Article 50 extension to what has been proposed. However, the mood on her own benches does seem to be changing in

the PM’s favour. This is largely thanks to hardliners who are starting to fear that they may lose at the last moment, something that they have campaigned on for decades. The mood is also

more confident on the Remain side. The marchers marched. The e-petition to revoke Article 50 gets ever more signatories. One Lord, decked out in an EU-flag tie, was practically leaping

around Westminster’s Portcullis House yesterday. “We’re winning,” he declared. If Theresa May does get her deal over the line, with or without offering her resignation, it will be down more

to luck than judgement. It is hard to point to any strategic or tactical wins for Downing Street for quite some time. They’ve even been out-politicked by Jeremy Corbyn. And yet there she is,

still in Number 10 and still with the possibility of having her deal passed by Parliament, despite the fact most of its members hate it. May might be technocratic and passionless, but she

is also hugely resilient. The MPs who have tormented her for two-and-a-half years have ensured her premiership will never be remembered with any fondness, least of all by her. However, the

Government can ignore any consensus that emerges from the indicative votes and put her deal to the Commons again. This time it might pass. If that happens, Mrs May will be able to say that

she negotiated Britain’s exit from the EU. She will have done her duty. And that, really, is all she has ever wanted. In a bizarre twist of fate, one of Theresa May’s biggest flaws, her

unwavering stubbornness, may actually prove to be her biggest asset. It’s starting to look as though her opponents have, after all, blinked first.