Climate explained: will the covid-19 lockdown slow the effects of climate change?

_CLIMATE EXPLAINED is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change._ _If you have a question you’d

like an expert to answer, please send it to [email protected]_ ------------------------- > DO YOU THINK THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC LOCKDOWN WILL SLOW OR POSSIBLY > REVERSE THE 

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (DUE TO DECREASED AIR TRAVEL, > CARS, FOSSIL FUELS BEING EMITTED)? The COVID-19 lockdown has affected the environment in a number of ways. The first is a

reduction in air travel and associated emissions. Globally, air travel accounts for around 12% of the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions and this was predicted to rise. An ongoing

reduction in air travel would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions. The lockdown has also meant less travel by road, which has resulted in measurably lower vehicle emissions and cleaner

air in New Zealand. Worldwide, daily emissions of carbon dioxide had dropped by 17% by early April (compared with 2019 levels) and just under half of the reduction came from changes in land

transport. The same study estimated the pandemic could reduce global emissions by between 4% (if the world returns to pre-pandemic conditions mid-year) and 7% (if restrictions remain in

place until the end of 2020). But even a 7% drop would mean emissions for 2020 will roughly be the same as in 2011. The long-term impact of the pandemic on climate change depends on the

actions governments take as economies recover – they will influence the path of global carbon dioxide emissions for decades. ------------------------- _ READ MORE: CORONAVIRUS IS A

'SLIDING DOORS' MOMENT. WHAT WE DO NOW COULD CHANGE EARTH'S TRAJECTORY _ ------------------------- CHOOSING HOW YOU TRAVEL In New Zealand, the biggest reduction in emissions

came from people not travelling as much, or at all. But as the lockdown lifted, these improvements seemed to be short term, with traffic volumes and the associated pollution now back at

pre-COVID-19 levels. There is significant uncertainty about all of the changes prompted by the pandemic lockdown, but international air travel is predicted to remain down in the short to

medium term as the risk of inter-country transfer of COVID-19 remains high. For how long depends on the ability of other countries to effectively manage the virus or the availability of a

vaccine. ------------------------- _ READ MORE: HOW CHANGES BROUGHT ON BY CORONAVIRUS COULD HELP TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE _ ------------------------- Land transport is more within our control

in New Zealand. How, and how much, we choose to travel will determine our greenhouse gas emissions. While many people are returning to their cars, there are some lockdown changes that could

lead to longer-term emissions reductions. Firstly, people now realise it is possible to work from home and may want to continue doing so in the future. Secondly, there is evidence some

people walked and cycled more than they had done before during lockdown. Retailers are reporting increased demand for bicycles. KEEPING SOME LOCKDOWN CHANGES In many parts of the world,

governments are implementing plans to lock in some of the reductions in traffic caused by the pandemic. This includes allocating road space to walking and cycling and incentives for people

to buy or maintain bikes (such as in France and the UK). There are also initiatives to decarbonise the car fleet by replacing fossil fuelled vehicles with electric ones. In New Zealand,

electric vehicles are exempt from road user charges and the government is investigating ways to increase the uptake of alternative fuels in the road freight industry.

------------------------- _ READ MORE: NEW ZEALAND'S COVID-19 BUDGET DELIVERS ON ONE CRISIS, BUT LARGELY LEAVES CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ANOTHER DAY _ ------------------------- These measures

are important and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they are not designed to reduce the number of people travelling, or the mode they use. Congestion is an ongoing issue in Auckland and

is now estimated to cost more than NZ$1 billion per year. Another challenge is the growing rate of obesity, with one in three New Zealanders now obese. This is at least partly a

transport-related challenge. We know obesity rates are higher in places where more people travel by car. Increased use of public transport can reduce obesity – as well as making people

happier. How long-lasting the COVID-19 impact on emissions is depends on how much we want some of the temporary changes to continue. For example, COVID-19 showed more people walk and cycle

if there are fewer cars, which supports evidence that safety is a big barrier to cycling and we need dedicated cycle ways to keep people away from traffic. We also know people are happy with

a little inconvenience to have safer play-friendly streets. Encouraging some of the lockdown behavioural changes could have additional benefits and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the

same time.