Who will triumph in this competition to steer the titanic? | thearticle

There’s something a bit surreal about this summer’s leadership race. Ostensibly, the hunt for a new Prime Minister is on, but as the candidates themselves preen and prance under the

spotlight of the national media (and oh-so-subtly dish the dirt on each other), the Conservatives continue to plummet in the opinion polls. According to a particularly shocking YouGov poll

released today, the party of Government is now less popular not only than the Brexit Party but also the Liberal Democrats, and Corbyn’s Labour. Whoever is chosen by Tory members to succeed

Theresa May in July may technically have a mandate to lead the country, but in practice, it seems unlikely that Parliament – or the British people – will accept his or her legitimacy for

very long. This doesn’t seem to be putting off ambitious Tory MPs, however, and no fewer than a dozen have now thrown their hats in the ring. Five of them (including the entirely unknown

Mark Harper) stand very little chance of making it beyond the first round, but as things stand, it seems possible that any of the other seven – profiled below – could be triumphant come

July. BORIS JOHNSON After years of waiting in the wings, it’s clear that Boris believes that his moment has come. And according to the bookies – who have him down as the runaway favourite –

he could well be right. His robustly articulated patriotism and shaggy dog charm always go down well with the middle aged, middle England Brexiteers who make up the vast majority of

Conservative Party members (there’s always a frisson of excitement when he comes on stage at Party Conference), and since restarting his Telegraph column, he seems to have crystallised that

support: polls by Conservative Home suggest a whopping 33% of members will vote for him if he’s on the final ballot paper. The question is, will he make it that far? A large group of Tory

MPs think he was a blustering and ineffective Foreign Secretary and an unofficial ‘stop Boris’ campaign is gaining traction: according to some polls, he currently has fewer parliamentary

supporters than either Michael Gove or Dominic Raab. It also doesn’t help his case that Dominic Grieve and around 20 other arch Remainers have indicated they will resign the whip if he

becomes Prime Minister. On the other hand, ERG types are aware that Boris is the only one of their number with really good name recognition – helpful if it does indeed come to a general

election – and he does seem to have the firmest plan of any of the possible candidates for getting out of the current Brexit rut: namely, withhold half the £39 billion May has promised to

the EU until Barnier et al reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and make some legally binding concessions. JEREMY HUNT With eight years of Cabinet experience behind him, Jeremy Hunt is

technically one of the most qualified candidates for the job. Lots of Conservatives think he did rather well at Health – surely the hardest brief – and he is definitely making his mark as

Foreign Secretary. Last year, he managed to secure the swift release of British academic Matthew Hedges, something many believe his predecessor couldn’t have achieved. His talent for

languages has also won him some admirers among those who believe we need a Prime Minister who will cut an impressive figure on the world stage. His flip-flopping on Brexit, however, is a

serious problem. As Alex Wickham of Buzzfeed has pointed out on Twitter, in the last year, he has expressed his support for a second referendum, single market membership and no deal – before

very publicly backtracking on all three. Of course, to some extent, all the candidates are obfuscating on Brexit, but there’s something about Hunt’s particular brand of slipperiness which

Conservative MPs seem to be finding grating: according to Guido Fawkes in the last 48 hours, he has lost four of his supporters to Michael Gove. DOMINIC RAAB The main problem with Dominic

Raab is that, beyond Westminster, he’s almost an entirely unknown quantity. His tenure as Brexit Secretary lasted only four months, and as Theresa May was freezing him out by conducting most

of the negotiations herself throughout that time, it wasn’t particularly helpful political experience. On the other hand, as his speech at Party Conference proved, he’s an excellent speaker

with a compelling backstory – and there’s definitely something of the statesman about him. What’s more, he’s managed to come out of the last, terrible, year looking really rather good. He

showed loyalty to the Prime Minister in her darkest hour by taking up the mantle of Brexit Secretary when Davis stepped down, but then had the courage to stick to his principles and resign

when it became evident that she wasn’t going to let him do his job. For those on the right of the Party, his domestic agenda – as laid out in the Mail on Sunday last weekend – will also

sound compelling. He has proposed to let state schools be run by profit-making companies, cut corporation tax, and not make it easier for people to change their gender. Real traditionalists

may also find it refreshing that he refused to call himself a feminist in an interview with ITV on Wednesday. MICHAEL GOVE One of the most effective ministers under David Cameron, Gove has

long been touted as a possible Prime Minister. He’s a convincing public speaker, a conviction politician, and a true Brexiteer – which all count in his favour. In this contest, he’s pitching

himself as the “unity candidate” – and it seems to be working. Alone among the twelve contenders, he has the support of an equal number of Brexiteer and Remainer MPs. The problem is,

outside Westminster, he just isn’t widely trusted. He may well have been quite right to withdraw his support for Boris in the last leadership election (Boris didn’t exactly shower himself in

glory in high office subsequently), but once you’ve been called a backstabber, it’s hard to clear your name. Plus, to teachers he’s still the devil incarnate – and a lot of parents, even

among Conservative members, listen to their children’s teachers. SAJID JAVID A Eurosceptic who reluctantly voted Remain, Sajid Javid has support on both sides of the Conservative Party. He

has already shown himself to be a formidable Home Secretary, and is admired for sticking to his convictions: he was one of the first cabinet ministers who spoke out against May’s draconian

immigration policies. He’s also a free-marketeer and calls himself a Thatcherite, which will go down well with the party members. On the other hand, he’s a truly terrible public speaker,

and, like Hunt, it’s not at all clear what his plan would be for getting us out of our current predicament. His leadership campaign – launched  late – has got off to a bad start, and it’s

hard to see where there’s room for him in this crowded field. RORY STEWART Rory Stewart, the freshly appointed international development secretary who no one outside of the most insular

Westminster circles had even heard of a week ago, is, perhaps, the candidate causing the biggest stir. After three draining years of the Maybot, this contest is all about likeability, and on

that front, Stewart is playing a clever game. Rather than miring himself in the Brexit bog by making long, dry speeches on why a deal with the EU is necessary to secure economic stability,

he has been trekking up and down the country with a wobbly “hand-held” camera, flashing a toothy, slightly lopsided grin to the public and inviting people to “chat”. But, though he’s the

blue-eyed boy of the chattering classes, his appeal outside liberal Metropolitan circles is very limited, and among MPs – who are responsible for narrowing the 12 down to two – he has little

to no support. MATT HANCOCK Young and energetic Health Secretary Matt Hancock is certainly a rising star in the Conservative Party. As DCMS Secretary, he made waves by axing the proposed

second stage of the Leveson Enquiry (earning him high praise among journalists) – and standing up to Facebook and Instagram in a way no other politician before or since has dared to do.

Since taking over the Health brief from Jeremy Hunt last year, he has enthusiastically and effectively championed digital solutions to the NHS’s myriad problems, and – so far at least –

seems to have stayed on the right side of doctors and nurses. It seems unlikely he’ll get the top job this time, but definitely worth keeping an eye on for future contests. WHY IT MATTERS

Although this summer’s leadership election may feel like the Conservatives are rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic, it is, nonetheless, worth paying attention to. Theresa May’s successor

may not get a chance to govern for very long, but if Conservative MPs and members pick the right candidate for the job, he or she should at least be able to pull the Party back from the

precipice. If not, the oldest political Party in the UK may be facing electoral oblivion sooner rather than later…