What britain expects from brexit — and what it will really get | thearticle

Bear with me. Few, if any, of the elements in the Brexit scenario below will come true. Taken together, they look delusional. Except that, if you believe all the things government ministers

have said separately about each item and ignore the fierce rebuttals from Brussels, then this outcome, or something like it, is what the government thinks it can achieve. The big question is

not whether events will turn out differently, but by how much? When the check-list is finally totted up, how many ticks will the coming negotiations give us? The answer will determine

Britain’s identity, power and prosperity for years to come, and whether Brexit ends up being seen as a glorious act of liberation, an unnecessary catastrophe, or something in between. Here

is the scenario that ministers seem to hope for. The European Union frees the United Kingdom from the rules and regulations of the Single Market and Customs Union, but lets goods and

services continue to flow, frictionless and tariff-free between the UK and EU. Integrated Europe-wide industries such as cars, aviation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals continue to trade as

now. Investment rises, jobs are saved, wages rise. At the same time, the EU allows London to maintain its place at the heart of Europe’s financial services industry, as if nothing had

changed. What about freedom of movement? Ministers want the EU to abandon its insistence that its four freedoms — goods, capital, services and labour — are indivisible. The EU allows Britain

to restrict the rights of EU citizens to work in Britain, while allowing freedom to trade to continue. As for the EU’s rules curbing state aid, _tant pis. _Brussels will no longer fret over

Britain’s government wasting taxpayers’ money bailing out failing companies. That is not all. The EU is expected to agree to reduce sharply the access of its fishing fleets to British

waters, while allowing Britain’s repatriated fish to be sold across the Channel. The EU agrees to share intelligence on crime and terrorism and to maintain the current system of arrest

warrants. It also accepts that Britain will have nothing to with the European Court of Justice, and agrees to a completely new procedure for settling disputes, in which the UK and EU have an

equal say. In short, Boris Johnson gets his cake-and-eat-it deal. Britain continues to enjoy the benefits of EU membership without having to pay for them or be bound by club rules.

Meanwhile, Johnson hopes to fulfil one of his declared ambitions for Brexit: to develop closer relations with America. Donald Trump would tell his blond doppelganger that he’s perfectly

happy for Britain to buy 5G technology from Huawei but ban chlorinated chickens from Iowa. And if Britain wants to impose higher taxes on the UK operations of Amazon, Apple, Google and

Facebook, Johnson wants Trump to concede without demur that this is a sovereign decision for each country and will do nothing to stand in Johnson’s way. Plainly, the rest of this year will

see detailed, fraught and tortured negotiations on all these issues. We can expect delays, breakdowns and fudged compromises. None of us can be sure how, where, if or when we shall end up

with a definitive post-Brexit settlement. However, we can, I think, sketch out two broad possibilities. The first is that Johnson achieves enough of what he wants in order to claim victory,

even if this involves highly dubious assertions about the meaning and impact of the deals he does. As long as the economy revives for a while, and the downsides do not become apparent until

after 2024, Johnson will be able to achieve his ambition to spend a decade as Prime Minster. The hollowness of his victory will become apparent only after he has sold his memoirs. But what

about the alternative: the negotiations go badly, and Johnson is unable to claim victory — or is laughed out of court if he tries? As we mourn or celebrate Brexit day, this looks the more

likely outcome. Whatever the details, its overall picture will be that of a country with little bargaining power, salvaging whatever it can in its deals with Brussels, Washington and, for

that matter, Moscow and Beijing. Johnson will quickly discover that “they need us as much as we need them” is a handy slogan but a shocking lie. The prices we shall pay for

prosperity-boosting trade deals will be huge, most obviously if we have to surrender our own rules. Johnson has already had to sell Northern Ireland business down the river to secure his

withdrawal agreement. Frictionless trade with the EU would need him to abandon sovereignty in ways that surely not even Johnson would have the brass neck to describe as “taking back

control”. Which brings us to the larger truth about Britain’s plight as we leave the EU. Far from giving us the chance to restore our past glories, our departure will expose our weaknesses.

True, we retain the remnants of our status in the years after 1945: nuclear weapons and a seat on the United Nations Security Council. But when it comes to today’s huge challenges, such as

averting climate change, standing up to the world’s tech giants, regulating artificial intelligence, tackling terrorism and organised crime, and defending the liberal world order against its

foes, we face a rude awakening. We shall be second-division-players on the world stage, gravely limited by the ambitions, powers and decisions of others. For all its faults, the EU gave us

the chance to have more say in our future by combining with our neighbours. Severing that connection could have its upside. Illusions of grandeur are seldom healthy. Perhaps in some years’

time we shall have shed these. Then we can start the real discussion about Britain’s place in the world.