The union will not only survive brexit. It will be strengthened by it. | thearticle

Thus far, the main thrust of Remainer efforts to turn public opinion away from Brexit have concerned economics. The message has been that if we leave the EU we will be poorer. If we leave

without a deal the warnings have been most alarming, with suggestions of food shortages and so on. Until  last month it wasn’t just opposition politicians making this case, but senior

ministers – such as the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The media were far from niggardly in the airtime they would devote to the theme. Yet the public hasn’t budged. That is partly due to

scepticism about the claims. But mainly due to Brexiteers being motivated more by patriotism than financial calculation. So the more we were told that the continentals would punish us, the

greater the defiance grew. During the War, Churchill declared: “If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood upon

the ground”. There is a dose of that sentiment. Therefore, the Remainers probably have a better theme when warning of the break up of the United Kingdom. For staunch patriots that is a more

disturbing prospect than a shortage of avocados at Waitrose. There was an opinion poll published this week on Conservative Home, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, which found a majority of

Scots now favour independence. It was the first time a poll had found this for a couple of years. The margin was narrow – 52 per cent to 48 per cent. Labour has suggested they would be

willing to allow a second referendum on Scottish independence. The price would be SNP MPs putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street if the next general election resulted in another hung

Parliament. If Labour made the modest gains required for such an arrangement, it would be mathematically viable. There have also been predictions that Northern Ireland’s status in the UK

could be threatened. Sinn Fein used to be opposed to the European Union. But it now hopes the prospect of a “hard border” will stiffen republican sentiment. For the United Kingdom to be a

functioning democracy, different parts have to accept the majority verdict. If the EU referendum had resulted in a majority in England voting to Leave, but in the UK overall there was a win

for Remain, then the English would have had to accept it. During the Thatcher era, Labour had most of the MPs from Scotland, and this caused a bit of backchat bout policies being “imposed”

on them. But the Union held together. Of course, the push for Scottish separation is opportunistic. We had a “once in a generation” referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 and the

proposal was defeated by a reasonably clear margin – 55 per cent to 45 per cent. At the 2017 general election, Labour declared in its Manifesto: “Labour opposes a second Scottish

independence referendum. It is unwanted and unnecessary, and we will campaign tirelessly to ensure Scotland remains part of the UK.” Two years on it’s a negotiating chip for a pretty dubious

coalition. No marriage should be taken for granted. But I am confident the UK won’t be broken into pieces by Brexit. Really, it is the delay that is source of friction. Most of those well

informed about Parliamentary procedure have concluded it is unlikely that Brexit can be prevented from happening on schedule and as promised on October 31. What will then follow in Northern

Ireland is that trade and travel across the border will continue without any great difficulty. Suggestions of a “hard border” with customs posts (perhaps with terrorists taking potshots)

will not materialise. The British won’t establish them. Nor will the Irish Republic. There isn’t time for them to do so by October 31. After the UK has left the EU and normal life continues

it will be tricky for the EU to demand Ireland sets up barriers as some great imperative. So far as Scotland is concerned, Boris Johnson has made the following point about fishing: “They are

committed to handing back control of Scotland’s fantastic fisheries to Brussels, just after Scotland has taken back control of its fish and is able to galvanise and to turbo-charge the

Scottish fishing industry. I do think that is a most bizarre manifesto, most bizarre policy and not one that I urge the SNP to continue with. I look forward to hearing news of a U-turn on

that policy because it just does not make sense for Scotland.” The same arguments from 2014 would apply. What currency would Scotland have? If it wished to join the EU it would have to apply

as a new member, thus joining the Euro. After we just start settling down after Brexit, would there really be much appetite for this bold new venture? That strong patriotic impulse means

that the strongest Brexiteers are invariably also the strongest unionists. That makes the notion that the two causes are in conflict, painful. We may be in for a bumpy ride. But I believe

that the United Kingdom will continue as a nation state with all four of its countries continuing as proud members. Indeed, once the UK is able to set its own laws, decide its own trade

deals and pursue its own interests, it will be stronger than it is today.