The russian enigma | thearticle

In the art of Kremlinology, one could be forgiven for supposing that little has changed since 1939, when Churchill famously confessed that he could not “forecast the action of Russia. It is

a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. Then, it was unclear whether Stalin’s Russia would be Hitler’s enemy or his ally. Today, we are no less puzzled by the purposes of Putin’s

Russia. That it means the free world no good, however, is a conclusion that is hard to avoid. At any moment, Russian forces are poised to unleash a new proxy war with Ukraine, using

separatists in the Donetsk region as a pretext. We do not know whether the build-up on the border is a bluff or, if not, when hostilities will commence; still less can we fathom why such

misery and destruction could be in anyone’s interest. But the fortification of Crimea, annexed by Moscow seven years ago, into a nuclear-armed military and naval complex may be a clue. In

order to cling onto his ill-gotten gains, Putin must keep the Ukrainians permanently on the defensive and the West on the back foot. Needless to say, the Kremlin has accused Nato, which has

reinforced its units in the vicinity, of itself threatening aggression. It is no different in Belarus, the strategically vital buffer state often described as “Europe’s last dictatorship”.

Last weekend, two Belarussians were arrested in Moscow, accused of plotting to assassinate their despotic President, Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian secret police, the FSB, have handed the

men over to the authorities in Minsk. There, Lukashenko himself claims to have found evidence that the conspirators were involved with foreign agencies: “most likely the FBI, the CIA”. No

such evidence has yet been produced, but the allegations provide a useful pretext to crush the opposition in Belarus, where mass protests last year against rigged presidential elections came

close to toppling the regime. Inside Russia itself, the opposition is preparing to stage its largest demonstrations yet on Wednesday evening, to coincide with the President’s state of the

nation address to the Duma. The main focus of the protesters will be Alexei Navalny, now languishing in a penal colony and nearly three weeks into a hunger strike. He has been denied medical

help outside the prison camp and his personal doctor, Anastasia Vasilyeva, was arrested when she tried to visit. But she says that, based on blood tests, his potassium levels are “critical”

and a cardiologist, Yaroslav Ashikhmin, warns that he “could die at any moment”. Calling on Russians to gather in city centres on Wednesday at 7 pm, Navalny’s chief aide, Leonid Volkov,

said on social media: “His life is hanging by a thread…we do not have [much] time.” It is impossible to predict what would happen if Navalny were to die. His health was, of course,

devastated by the attempt to poison him with Novichok last summer and has been further undermined by his harsh treatment since his return to Russia. Yet his remarkable resurrection from

weeks in a coma after the attempted assassination, his refusal to be driven into exile and his courage at his trial have all added hugely to his status as a popular hero and potential rival

to Putin. The Russian Ambassador to London, Andrew Kelin, told the BBC’s Andrew Marr yesterday that Navalny, whom he called a “hooligan”, would “not be allowed to die in prison”. This

indicates that the Kremlin is worried about the impact of Navalny’s death in custody, leading to his posthumous emergence as a legend of resistance. The dramas now being played out in Russia

has had repercussions here, too. Boris Johnson is reported to have ordered the modernisation of the Official Secrets Act, parts of which are more than a century old, in time for the Queen’s

Speech on May 11. The new legislation will encompass not only espionage but cyberwarfare and interference in the democratic process. Foreign intelligence officers and agents are at present

able to spy with impunity unless they are caught stealing official secrets. Under the new law, the authorities could pre-empt their activities, with new powers to prosecute and deport spies.

A register of all those working for foreign governments will be kept, including lobbyists, while cyberhackers based abroad will also be covered. This legislation will replace an even more

draconian Treason Act, once mooted by Boris Johnson, but the new Bill will also require careful drafting if it is to avoid fierce resistance from human rights campaigners. The intelligence

community is still reverberating from the revelation that the same Russian spies who carried out the Salisbury attack in 2018 had also been responsible four years earlier for the sabotage of

a Czech munitions depot. An explosion killed two workers and was intended to disrupt the export of weapons destined for Ukraine. The GRU (Russian military intelligence) Unit 29155 is

believed to have been behind a series of attacks throughout Europe, including other Novichok poisoning incidents. Western strategy should never underestimate the impact of Russian espionage

and sabotage. Putin remains a dangerous adversary and he has grown bolder over the years. When Joe Biden tells his Russian counterpart that the treatment of Navalny is “totally unfair and

totally inappropriate”, or pledges American support for Ukraine against “Russia’s ongoing aggression” in the Donbas region, Putin can simply shrug it off. Western sanctions have yet to deter

the Kremlin from its machinations. Yet we should not exaggerate Putin’s power and influence either. He still has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons outside the US and his control of

energy supplies gives him kudos in Europe, especially in Germany. But compared to the Chinese leviathan, Russia is a very small fish indeed. The attempts by Moscow to disguise the scale of

Covid deaths — which are almost certainly several times greater than official figures — reminds us that in some ways Russia remains a backward country. Its grotesquely large military budget

comes at a high price in falling living standards and life expectancy. The factors which fuel domestic discontent — corruption and stagnation — also limit the Kremlin’s room for manoeuvre

abroad. No doubt Putin’s police state will put on a show of force this week, but Navalny and other opponents have shown that they will not be intimidated. To interfere directly would be

counter-productive, but we in the West should show that we care what happens on the streets of Moscow and elsewhere. Russia may still be an enigma, but — from Pushkin to Pussy Riot — it is

also an essential part of Western civilisation. A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make,

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