The nobody knows election: notes for friends abroad | thearticle

1. It remains hard to predict with certainty the election outcome. The opinion polls give Boris Johnson a clear lead, but they gave Theresa May a similar clear lead at the same stage in the

2017 election. When Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July, opinion polls gave the Brexit Party some 20 per cent of the vote. Now that there are no Brexit Party candidates in any Tory

seat, that vote supports Johnson — which gives him a flattering (to deceive) lead in polls today. But all he is doing is increasing vote share in seats that are already Tory. A recent poll

shows Labour up two points. 2. I was canvassing on Saturday in Watford, a Conservative seat north of London with a 2094 majority, and on Sunday Canterbury, a Labour seat won in 2017 with a

tiny majority of just 187. In Watford, the serving MP, Richard Harrington, a Remainer and a one-nation Tory, has been replaced by an ardent Brexiter as the Conservative candidate. 3. I spent

the morning at a street stall on Watford High Street talking to voters and in Kent doing intensive door-to-door knocking. In neither seat did I sense any enthusiasm for the Conservatives.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson are disliked and neither is seen as a worthy prime minister. 4. The Johnson mantra, “Get Brexit Done”, reflects the clear Brexit fatigue, but it is not

clear that this fatigue extends to voting for the Johnson version of Brexit. As one of our best commentators, the _New Statesman_’s Stephen Bush wrote this week, this Brexit “means the end

of British manufacturing as we know it”. 5. I was surprised in Kent, which voted 59-41 to Leave in 2016, at how little enthusiasm there was for Brexit. More than one voter said it would be

damaging for the next generation of younger people. 6. Nigel Farage has all but disappeared as an important figure in the campaign. The Liberal Democratic leader, Jo Swinson, did not impress

in the Friday evening BBC Question Time. Ms Swinson was repeatedly attacked by members of the audience for her party’s position, that she would simply ignore the 2016 referendum result and

revoke Article 50 to stay in the EU. Several said this was simply undemocratic, with much support in the audience. Others attacked her record as an MP and minister in the David Cameron-led

coalition government, where she voted for harsh cuts to social welfare for disabled people and women pensioners. She stuttered and never got back any composure. I would judge that the hopes

of a major Lib Dem breakthrough, based on their success in the European Parliament election, are now dead. 7. In fact, it is hard to see where lots of seats will change hands. I don’t see

many Labour seats falling to Johnson’s Tories. I don’t see Corbyn’s left-wing manifesto winning many Tory seats. But in terms of numbers out canvassing and reach-out to young people, Corbyn

and Labour are making the running. The Tories and LibDems try and depict him only as an anti-Semite. Labour has got major problems with anti-Semitism and few of the UK’s 260,000 Jews will

vote Tory. It surfaced again this week with the Chief Rabbi’s powerful intervention, which was offset by a calm, considered response from Lord Dubs, a Kindertransport refugee from Nazi

Germany before 1939. He stressed that while Corbyn’s handling of anti-Semitism as an issue was poor, it would not be right to say he was an anti-Semite. But Johnson also has problems with

the regular surfacing of disgusting anti-Muslim prejudice by Tory party members, some holding local office. Not many of the 3.3 million British Muslims will vote for Johnson. 8. Other

factors should be remembered. 26 per cent of voters say they have not yet decided how to vote. Nearly 1.5 million young voters (18 to 34 years old) have put themselves on the electoral

register since October. They do not share the anti-Europeanism of older Tories. Of 30-49 year-olds now with families, worried about schools, housing, the monomaniacal obsession with Brexit

of Johnson and the Tories seems silly. It is not that these younger voters are ardent Europhiles. They regard Theresa May (up to July), Boris Johnson and other Tories as single issue

militants who ignore Britain’s real problems. Only three out of ten of this group say they will vote Conservative. How many Tory seats will the SNP win in Scotland? Will the DUP lose three

seats to modern pro-EU Ulster unionists and the SDLP? Johnson only knows southern England. This election may turn on the votes of the other nations in the UK. 9. I talk to Labour MPs most

days and all report an electorate that is not moving, that dislikes Corbyn but holds Johnson in contempt, that just wants Brexit to go away and knows Johnson’s proposals mean Brexit

dominating Britain for years to come. The fact that Nigel Farage is standing Brexit Party candidates in Labour seats is helpful to Labour, as it divides the anti-EU, pro-Brexit vote between

Johnson and Farage. 10. Perhaps the election will become clear. It was assumed a week ago that the television debates between potential party leaders followed by the publication of party

manifestos would bring some clarity. This has not happened. No-one really knows. My best guess is that, as elsewhere in Europe, voters will not give a single party a clear majority of seats

and full authority to govern. The House of Commons may become a Parliament of No Majority.