The most unpredictable of us presidents will ultimately leave office in a predictable fashion | thearticle

U.S. President Donald Trump has a good chance of being re-elected in 2020. But what if he loses? The Express’s talented political reporter, James Bickerton, examined this scenario in his

Mar. 6 piece for TheArticle. While Trump isn’t “a man defined by his consistency,” due to flip-flopping on everything from policy matters to political orientation, he believes “one of the

few areas Trump has maintained consistency…is in his almost open disregard for certain key democratic norms.”  Hence, Bickerton theorises what could happen if Trump lost by a close margin in

the 2020 presidential election. For instance, the President could claim the “result has been rigged by his opponents,” and refuse to concede on those grounds. He could be fearful of leaving

office, depending on what Robert Muller reveals his long-awaited (and long-delayed) report. There’s also the possibility of “some violence, isolated and petty but also potentially deadly”

from Trump’s loyal supporters. Is Bickerton right or wrong? Alas, my ability to gaze into the future is as non-existent as his is. So I can’t say with certainty. Nevertheless, my gut feeling

is Trump will leave the White House in a peaceful manner in either 2020 (if he loses) or 2024 (after reaching the constitutional limit of two presidential terms). No matter how

unpredictable Trump is, he recognises the importance of the office he holds. He leads one of the world’s most powerful nations, and consistently makes political and economic decisions that

affect individuals, businesses and countries. Yes, he said in an April 2017 Reuters interview on the 100th day of his presidency, “I loved my previous life. I had so many things going. This

is more work than in my previous life. I thought it would be easier.” While some have suggested this was a sign he disliked being President, I believe this realisation pushed him to work

harder and focus more on the task at hand. He certainly seems to be more involved in his presidency now than he was before. Trump also wants to create a political legacy that exists and

thrives long after his time in the White House has concluded. As he mentioned in his inaugural presidential address, “What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but

whether our government is controlled by the people. January 20, 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.”  That’s why he has held summits with

North Korea, renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement, moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, nominated two right-leaning judges

(Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh) to the U.S. Supreme Court, and wants to build a border wall with Mexico. Whether you agree or disagree with these policies, and others to come, they will

ultimately define his presidency for the history books – and the people he theoretically serves. It would therefore make no sense for Trump to risk destroying everything he’s attempted to

achieve by refusing to leave the office peacefully.  He would be unhappy to join the list of one-term presidents like John Adams, Martin Van Buren, Andrew Johnson, Jimmy Carter and George

H.W. Bush. He would blame his political opponents, Washington elites (Democrat and Republican), the mainstream media and other self-described enemies of the people. But if he didn’t follow

the democratic process and step aside, his legacy would be reduced to that of a bitter, spiteful ex-President attempting to barricade himself in the White House instead of a former President

who presided over a captivating, outside-the-box political agenda for four years.    For the sake of argument, let’s say the 2020 presidential election result ends up being close. Trump

would be well within his rights to challenge this result, and the same principle would go for his forthcoming Democratic opponent if the roles were reversed. The 2000 presidential election

between George W. Bush and Al Gore was decided by a margin of victory in Florida of 537 votes (or 0.009%) and a Supreme Court ruling. If a similar political drama is played out next year, so

be it.   Meanwhile, there’s no constitutional mechanism in place for Trump to stay in the White House if he loses, other than a formal court challenge. The House of Representatives, Senate

and Governors would have to back him and ignore the democratic process, which is unprecedented. The military and intelligence services would have to do the same thing, which is

unprecedented. And the Supreme Court would have to refuse to swear in the new President, which is – as you guessed – unprecedented. Most Americans have faith and confidence in their

country’s 243-year experiment with democracy, liberty and freedom. This includes the peaceful transfer of power from one political entity to another. Whether they vote for Trump in 2020, or

his forthcoming Democratic opponent, this attitude won’t change because of one presidential election. Finally, what about the threat of violence due to a Trump loss, as Bickerton suggested?

  A few presidents have been assassinated, including Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, but those were rare occurrences. The fear of violence was suggested when Barack Obama became the

nation’s first African-American president in 2008, but never materialised. Those threats re-emerged during the 2016 presidential election, but never came to fruition because Trump beat

Hillary Clinton.  So, while I agree the possibility exists in 2020 because the U.S. is politically polarised, the likelihood is incredibly slim because it’s been politically polarised for

decades. When push comes to shove, everything seems to fall in place in the American Republic. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about modern-day politics, it’s that anything is possible.

In this same vein, I believe the most unpredictable U.S. President in history will ultimately leave office in a predictable fashion if he loses in 2020: peacefully, quietly and, believe it

or not, respectfully.