The eu will blink and we'll get a deal. Here's why: | thearticle

On Monday morning, it looked as though everything was over for May and her deal. The Cooper-Boles amendment – which would extend the transition period and take no deal off the table –

appeared to have the support of the entire Labour Party, and a sizable handful of Conservatives. Meanwhile a large group of Conservative hard Brexiteers were refusing to throw their weight

behind the Brady amendment, on the grounds that it would rescue May’s deal – sub-optimal in their eyes, even without the backstop clause. But overnight, everything changed. And, against all

the odds, Tuesday became the best day for our beleaguered Government since before that fateful election. First, the hapless Labour whips failed to secure full support for the Cooper

amendment. Fourteen Labour MPs voted with Theresa May’s Government to prevent parliament from taking steps to prevent a no-deal Brexit by extending the article 50 negotiating period in order

to agree an alternative deal with the EU. Then, even more surprisingly, the ERG backed down. Under sustained pressure from pragmatic Brexiteers like Iain Duncan-Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg and a

number of his fellow hardliners decided that the Brady amendment, though far from perfect, may well be the only way of keeping the Brexit dream alive. After weeks of saying no (no to the

deal, no to no deal, no to a softer deal), parliament finally said yes. And the message was loud and clear: if the EU is prepared to make some concessions on the despised backstop in order

to preserve British sovereignty, a deal can, at last, be agreed. So, how will the EU respond? If you speak to French or German commentators over here, the 27 will refuse, point blank, to

blink. The bloc will always act in the interests of Ireland, so the argument goes, and if Leo Varadkar believes the backstop is the only way of keeping the peace on the island of Ireland,

then they will insist that it remains. But it doesn’t quite hold up. For a start, if you speak to ministers and commentators outside the Brussels/Paris/Berlin bubble, there is a certain

amount of frustration with Varadkar. Last week, Poland’s foreign minister, Jacek Czaputowicz, called for the Irish border backstop to be scrapped after five years – and this week Lotta

Nymann-Lindegren, a former Finnish diplomat, said the EU had made a mistake getting by obsessing over the Irish border issue before the future relationship talks had begun. The border issue,

he said, was all about trade, and the implication was that it may well sort itself out when future trading relationships are decided. Admittedly, Poland is one of the most Britain friendly

countries in the bloc, and Nymann-Lindegren has no official sway over the backstop decision, but both mens’ words massively undermine the notion that the 27 is 100% united in its

intransigence. What’s more, acting in the best interests of Ireland isn’t necessarily the same as doing exactly what Leo Varadkar wants – and the EU surely knows it. Since there’s no time to

negotiate a new deal (and it’s abundantly clear that the May’s deal in its current form will never get through parliament), the result of the EU refusing to budge on the backstop would

almost certainly be the UK leaving the EU without a deal. And the one thing upon which everyone can agree is that no deal would be catastrophic for the Republic of Ireland. Michael Martin,

the Fianna Fáil leader, is making this point loudly and clearly, and has repeatedly called for the Irish Government to be honest with the public about the potential consequences of the UK

crashing out of the EU. EU politicians may claim complete loyalty to Mr Varadkar and his brinkmanship, but they will be hearing Martin’s words, and must surely feel obliged to act in the

interest of the Irish people – not just their leader. One way or another, the future is looking bright for May and her Government. Of course, it will be very, very difficult to find an

“alternative solution” to the backstop, but now everyone is working on the same problem, the challenge doesn’t seem insurmountable. We’re inches away from finding a deal which will work for

everyone, a few tough compromises on both sides should see us over the line.