The 2019 general election battlegrounds | thearticle

Be it this week or next January, a General Election is coming – and fast. So where will the battles be fought? And how will they play out? The five constituencies profiled below give some

indication of what Boris Johnson will be up against. OXFORD WEST AND ABINGDON – (LIBERAL DEMOCRAT MAJORITY: 816) An affluent, educated corner of south-west England, Oxford West and Abingdon

is a natural battleground for the Tories and Liberal Democrats. In 2015, Tory Nicola Blackwood held onto the seat with a majority of 10,000+, but just two years later she lost it to Lib Dem

Layla Moran. Winning it back will be a tough slog: it’s not as heavily pro-Remain as parts of London (estimates suggest Remain won with 61 per cent of the vote), but it’s the home of dozens

of entrepreneurs and small business owners – not to mention students – many of whom are deeply worried about the effects of Brexit. The Tories best hope here is to lay off the Brexit talk,

and go heavy on traditional Conservative messages: an energetic campaign focusing on aspiration, business, and low taxes would definitely make Moran twitchy. CHIPPING BARNET – (CONSERVATIVE

MAJORITY: 353) This leafy London suburb has been held by a Conservative since its creation for the February 1974 general election, withstanding even the Labour landslide in 1997. In 2017,

however, the Corbynmania which swept the capital crept north, and incumbent Theresa Villiers – now the new DEFRA Secretary – only clung on by the tips of her fingers. But here, at least, the

Tories can expect a big swing their way: there are 54,084 Jews living in Barnet (accounting for one in five of all Jews in England and Wales) – and they have been leaving the Labour Party

in their droves. The question for the Conservatives, though, is when it comes to an election, will it only be Jews who are prepared to punish the Leader of the Opposition for the rampant

anti-Semitism in his Party? If so (given the concentration of the Jewish population), Theresa Villiers may get her healthy majority back in Chipping Barnet – but in the rest of the country,

sheepish Labour voters who just “like the local MP” could end up putting Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. BATTERSEA (LABOUR MAJORITY: 2416) The middle-class, millennial graduates who make up

the vast majority of Battersea (one of the youngest constituencies in the country) are optimistic, entrepreneurial, and, although not usually politically active, normally sway towards free

market Conservatives come election time. But in 2017, they didn’t. Why? Brexit is the reason normally trotted out (Battersea had the second highest Remain vote in the country), but there was

another factor. From Winston Churchill to Margaret Thatcher and then David Cameron, Conservative leaders have invoked the ladder metaphor come election time: and it worked. For young people

working long hours in their first jobs in places like Battersea, the state as a provider of support on the way up is a far more attractive idea than the state as a net to catch you when you

fall. But Theresa May, obsessing over middle-aged, rural, “Just About Managings” and “left behinds”, spoke only of struggle in 2017, and forgot – it seems – to mention opportunity. Winning

back liberal, pro-Remain Battersea will be a challenge for Boris. But if he continues to talk about the virtues of the free market, “peddles optimism”, and proves that he – unlike his

predecessor – is pro-immigration, he might well succeed. STOKE-ON-TRENT SOUTH (CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 663) An industrial, working class, Northern constituency, Stoke-on-Trent South was a big

win for the Tories in 2017. Though elsewhere in the Labour heartlands May’s party only managed to make dents in Labour majorities, in Stoke-on-Trent South the “citizens of nowhere”

messaging actually paid off. But Boris won’t be feeling complacent about this particular seat. Farage and the Brexit Party will be pumping masses of resources into the area (which voted 72

per cent in favour of Leave), and the Tory vote simply can’t afford to be split. What’s more, where hard-grafting, down to earth Theresa May went down well here, a florid, old Etonian

show-off may not have the same appeal. STIRLING (CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY: 141) This central Scotland, ultra marginal constituency voted to remain in the EU by 69 per cent in 2016, but thanks,

presumably, to Ruth Davidson, it returned a Tory MP the year later anyway. Now, Davidson is gone, open arms of  ultra Remainer Nicola Sturgeon must look very welcoming indeed to the people

of Stirling. If Boris is to hold onto Stirling, and, for that matter, the other 12 seats the Tories hold in Scotland, he’s going to have to work something out with the Scottish Conservatives

and their leader… whoever that may be. _This is an updated version of a piece first published here in July _