Peter kellner predicts a tory triumph. Dominic cummings is not so sure. Who is right? | thearticle

A few weeks ago, it looked as if the general election campaign would be dominated by the outsize personality of the Prime Minister. Rather than a referendum on Boris Johnson, however, it is

turning into one on Jeremy Corbyn. The biggest threat to the Tories now is not Corbyn, but complacency. The Conservatives are on course for a majority of 68 seats, according to the YouGov

survey published in the_Times. _The MRP polling model, based on more than 100,000 interviews at constituency level, successfully predicted the 2017 election result at the same stage of that

campaign. This time, the model suggests that Labour is headed for its worst and the Tories to their best outcome since the 1980s. The new poll was anticipated and explained in a scoop for

_TheArticle_ earlier this week by YouGov’s founder, Peter Kellner. He believes that Brexit has shaken up the British political system more fundamentally than anybody had realised. Yet the

Downing Street strategist Dominic Cummings has just blogged to the effect that the parties are actually much closer and the result still in doubt. There is a grave danger that if people

believe the result is a foregone conclusion, they won’t bother to vote. Who is right: Kellner or Cummings? As things stand, Kellner’s prediction looks more likely to be proved correct than

that of Cummings. With a fortnight to go, however, the Tory lead could yet shrink or even disappear. The factors that Kellner also warned against on this platform here all still apply:

doubts about Boris Johnson himself, particularly his honesty; the potential popularity of some Labour policies, if the party were to overcome the perceived incompetence of its leader; and

tactical voting. It is the last of these that constitutes the biggest “known unknown” for the Tories. If Remainers who have in the past voted Conservative, but dislike the party’s direction

under Johnson, are persuaded by the polls that they no longer need fear a Corbyn victory, they may be tempted to vote Liberal Democrat. Likewise, Lib Dems in Tory or Labour marginals may

“lend” their votes to Labour to forestall a Brexiteer majority in Parliament. The YouGov poll predicts that none of the MPs who have defected from Labour or the Tories is likely to be

returned, but this expectation may cause their supporters to redouble their efforts. It would only require a modest increase in tactical voting to deprive the Tories of their triumph. It is

also quite possible that Labour scare stories about the NHS, or promises of public spending, could still cut through to the electorate. The Conservatives have yet to refute Labour’s claim

that medicines would be more expensive under a trade deal with the US. And the Labour promise of £58 billion to “compensate” women in their sixties for the “loss” of their pensions may tempt

a significant proportion of the 3.7 million “victims”. A bribe of up to £30,000 might not impress the better-off women who make up a quarter of this demographic and are in the top 20 per

cent of households by disposable income. Half of these “Waspi” women actually have private pension funds of at least £50,000, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies. But 16 per cent of

this group are near the bottom of the income scale, with household income of £13,000 or less. These poorer women, numbering more than half a million, are being offered by Labour a bonus

that in many cases exceeds their annual income. Why would they not take the money? Finally, Boris Johnson himself is still a potential liability for his party. Though he has many strengths

both as a charismatic campaigner and as a dynamic Prime Minister, he is also capable of unguarded comments that risk derailing the Tory machine. This explains his reluctance to submit to

Andrew Neil’s forensic interrogation, though after Corbyn’s mauling he cannot refuse to be grilled without looking cowardly. Even if he were to chicken out, he still has an interview with

Nick Robinson, and just before polling day too. The Prime Minister has preserved a relatively low profile in this campaign. This is not accidental. This may indeed turn out to be the Brexit

election, but it has not been the Boris election so far. Yet Labour activists are bound to concentrate their fire on the man whom they depict as the symbol of everything they hate. Indeed,

it is striking that Boris Johnson is beginning to respond to the charge that he represents “austerity” by repudiating the legacy of David Cameron, George Osborne and Theresa May. Instead, he

presents himself as a new kind of “One Nation Conservative”: one who is for Brexit but culturally European, socially liberal and keen on a bigger role for government, especially in

rebuilding infrastructure. After “get Brexit done”, the next most popular Boris catchphrase is “levelling up”: the neglected regions, the peripheral nations, the downtrodden classes.

Mortality rates in Manchester are now worse than in Wroclaw. Only a clear majority in Parliament will enable the next Prime Minister to address the glaring inequalities that led us to this

crossroads for the nation. There is still every reason to vote on December 12.