Le pen’s electoral failure is bad news for macron | thearticle

It is a given in English academic and media coverage of France that the nation is poised to move hard right. Voters disappointed with President Macron’s performance are expected to turn to

Marine Le Pen, as it is assumed that most are opposed to the Left, or to left-overs from the centre-Right party of Nicolas Sarkozy, who faces a possible jail sentence over election finances.

A weekend _Guardian_ headline — “Marine Le Pen poised to make gains in France’s regional elections” — summed up the conventional London elite media view of France. Not for the first time,

the voters of Europe let down the London commentariat. According to French pollsters, three out of four Le Pen voters, who put her into the second round run-off with Macron in 2017, could

not be bothered to turn out yesterday to lend her some support. Le Pen was hoping for a major boost from the regional elections and didn’t get it, as 68 per cent of French  voters stayed at

home. No doubt they were enjoying the eased lockdown restrictions, especially the end of compulsory mask-wearing. The 13 regions of France are an artificial administrative structure, with

limited power. They are in charge of infrastructure spending, business support and cultural activities, but purse strings are firmly controlled in Paris ministries.  Mayors of cities like

Paris, Marseilles, or Lille have far more political status and power. Nonetheless, the regions are the focus of  intense political competition. Marine Le Pen’s failure to make any gains is a

setback for her party, the National Rally, and to her hopes of ousting Macron next May. Robert Menard is Mayor of Beziers: once on the Left, he now campaigns against immigration and

Islamism to keep control of his city. He told French radio that the problem with Marine Le Pen is that there is no-one in her party who looks or sounds like a politician who can run

anything. Under Le Pen the father, and Le Pen the daughter, the Front National — now renamed the National Rally, though everyone still calls it the National Front — there have only ever been

three mobilising issues. Those are: anti-immigrant racism; anti-European xenophobia; and rancid anti-Muslim hate, with now and then an outbreak of anti-Semitism — which Jean Marie Le Pen

made a National Front stock-in-trade. Since Brexit, Marine Le Pen has dropped all calls to hold a referendum on the EU or to replace the Euro with the French franc. The French look at all

the problems associated with Brexit since 2016, especially British citizens losing their right to live in France or the endless fishing wars, and say “Non, merci” to the idea of copying

England. As for Islam: of the stars of French football, culture and on-screen TV personalities, many have a North African Muslim background. In any case, Macron has been as tough on

ideological Islamism and Islamist terrorism as anyone else, including all centre-right politicians and François Hollande, the last Socialist President of France. In short, Marine Le Pen is

running short of Unique Selling Points. The foetid prejudices and crude style of many of her associates are not seen by most as those that France wants in her ministers. Does this spell good

news for Macron? Not necessarily. His party, La République En Marche (LREM), scored 11 per cent, finishing bottom of all main parties in yesterday’s regional elections. But the last time

they were held – 2015 – Macron was just an ex-banker whom François Hollande had hired as an economics minister, not realising he was taking a cuckoo into his nest. The LREM is Macron. It is

a one-man movement, not a party with a base in small towns, cities, regions and a network of supporters to get out votes. In a presidential contest Macron would see off Le Pen even if she

made it to the second round. But there is now a spring in the step of the main centre-Right party, Les Républicains (LR). Ex-Sarkozy ministers like Xavier Bertrand, Laurent Wauquiez, or

Valerie Pecresse, who head major regions, all did well yesterday. They are all “Moi, Moi, Moi” politicians and getting them to stand down in favour of a single LR candidate against Macron

will not be easy. But if they can show some discipline and unity, while dog-whistling to Le Pen voters on identity and culture war issues, the centre-Right can be the vehicle to get rid of

the hated liberal Europhile Macron. This time, Le Pen may not get as far as the second round. In that case, Macron — while not quite being a _croque monsieur_ — will face a much tougher

challenge. Many on the Left, those involved in green politics, and centrist, economically liberal voters, who would support Macron against Le Pen, will not be certain to vote against a

traditional centre-Right candidate. All French presidents since Charles de Gaulle, even François Mitterrand, have had periods of unpopularity after their entry into the Elysée. Since the

presidential term was reduced to five years by Jacques Chirac in 2000, none has been re-elected to a second term. Macron has alienated too many centrist, liberal and the massed battalion of

socialist and other Left-wing voters who haven’t gone away. If Marine Le Pen is not in the second round of the presidential election next June, stand by for a shock. A MESSAGE FROM

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