Joe biden will probably be donald trump’s opponent in 2020. But can he win? | thearticle

The race is on for Democrats to choose a presidential candidate to challenge Donald Trump in 2020. It’s turned into the most crowded field in US political history, with 24 declared

candidates, plus another two or three who could jump in at a later date. Some of the leading contenders include Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, California Senator Kamala Harris, New Jersey

Senator Cory Booker and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. A garden variety of other candidates, including former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete

Buttigieg, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, are jockeying for support, too. Yet, every declared candidate is well behind the acknowledged front-runner,

Joe Biden. The former Vice President and Delaware Senator is the most seasoned political veteran in the race. He’s a centrist Democrat, for the most part, having previously supported a

partial birth abortion ban, capital punishment, the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Patriot Act, energy security, the 2003 Iraq War, and Israel’s right to defend its borders, among

other things. This has helped set him apart from the other candidates, who range from liberal to socialist. Nevertheless, he’s still trying to play both ends of the political candle. Biden

has claimed to be a progressive on several occasions, and said on April 29, “I was always labelled as one of the most liberal members of the United States Congress.” (The _Washington Post_’s

Glenn Kessler correctly declared this statement to be a false narrative on May 17.) There are some negatives that Biden will have to deal with. He’s 76 years old, which will undoubtedly

turn off some younger voters. He’s part of the political establishment, which worked heavily against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He’s had an imaginary muzzle placed on him because he’s long had

an unnerving habit of putting his foot in his mouth in public. He’s also been called “Creepy Uncle Joe”, due to his questionable (albeit non-sexual) behaviour around younger women.

Nevertheless, Biden is in the best position to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Unlike the other candidates, he’s the only one who has the ability to draw support from the same

voting blocks that composed Trump’s victorious 2016 coalition. He likens himself to a blue collar Democrat — which is accurate, since politics hasn’t made him a wealthy man — and speaks the

plain language of this demographic group either as well as or better than the current President, who is a billionaire. The Rust Belt states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, may have

come out strongly for Trump in 2016, but may be willing to shift to a Democrat who “gets” them. There’s also the distinct possibility Biden will run on a similar political message to

Trump’s, but from a centre-left perspective, and without any of the perceived racist and/or intolerant messaging. He’ll try to make America great again (so to speak) by protecting social

services, building infrastructure, making government more efficient and transparent, and protecting the dollars (and pennies) of US taxpayers. He may even try to combine historical left-wing

strategies, such as Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, and place them in a modern context that gives Americans a sense of hope, strength, confidence

and positivity. Biden, therefore, needs to avoid the radical economic ideas and political pitfalls that most of his fellow Democratic presidential candidates have fallen into. A platform

that could potentially resonate with Never Trump Republicans, political independents and disgruntled Americans is his best chance for success. Then again, is success even possible for Biden?

Trump will be able to counter Biden’s messaging with his various achievements in office. He and his advisors will point to a more efficient and streamlined government, tax cuts, strong

economy, more job opportunities, lower unemployment levels, the appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court, defending personal freedoms and liberties at every turn, and the

depiction of being a tough negotiator on trade issues and foreign policy in America’s interests. There’s also been real growth in his old political support base that many political

commentators either want to ignore or refuse to acknowledge. Former Republican and Democratic critics aren’t perfectly onside by any means, and could live without his bluster on social

media, constant use of crippling tariffs as a political tool, and so on. But some have started to warm to Trump’s political style and his independent streak. They now realise there may in

fact be method in his madness. If he’s getting results, they may want to keep him in office to finish the job. Trump has a few extra advantages for 2020, too. He’s the incumbent this time

around. He now has political experience, and understands Washington far better than he once did. The Republican presidential primaries will be a lot less bumpy for him, and he surely won’t

have to face another 16 experienced candidates. And the Democratic Party is in danger of imploding, due to the rise of the radical left, which means Biden will have to keep this extremely

shaky coalition together while running against a confident incumbent. When you put it all together, Trump should be able to beat Biden next year, though it may be a close race. Unless things

change dramatically, the most unconventional President of all time is on his way to a second term in office.