Is boris the ben stokes of british politics? | thearticle

Boris Johnson has come back from Biarritz with a spring in his step. He navigated his first G-7 summit without incident, perhaps helped by the fact that his own domestic position is actually

stronger than some leaders, one of whom (in Italy) has just resigned. Unlike others, the British Prime Minister is popular: a weekend YouGov poll put the Tories on 33 per cent, 12 points

ahead of Labour — their largest lead since 2017. This means that Boris Johnson need not, for the time being, fear being forced into an election by an intransigent Parliament. Indeed, Downing

Street is briefing that plans are afoot for polling day on October 17, just before the summit that will decide whether the EU wants a new deal or not. It is equally possible that such an

election would take place soon after the UK leaves a fortnight later. Either way, Boris is gambling that he can stay in office for long enough to call the election at a time of his own

choosing. What are the chances of the Prime Minister being toppled first by the forces aligned against him? Pretty high. But as his astonishing career demonstrates, Boris is the Bill Clinton

of British politics. Written off more than once, he has a proven ability to bounce back and delight the crowds. In one summer, Ben Stokes has saved both the World Cup and the Ashes. Don’t

bet against Boris pulling off a similar double this autumn: getting Brexit done and winning an election. He is greatly helped by the absence of serious competition. Jeremy Corbyn is Leader

of the Opposition in name only. It is even unclear whether he (rather than John McDonnell) leads his own faction of the Labour Party. So far he has utterly failed to exploit the divisions in

Conservative ranks, while his own reputation has never been lower. At the age of 70, Corbyn would be the oldest leader of his party ever to fight a general election. He may be elderly but

he still doesn’t look like an elder statesman and the country is more reluctant than ever to let him steer the ship of state. By contrast Jo Swinson, the new Liberal Democrat leader, is

enjoying something of a honeymoon. Just two points behind Labour, on 19 per cent, in the YouGov poll, her party stands to gain seats in a snap election. She has also stood firm against

Corbyn’s idea of making him a “temporary” Prime Minister after defeating Boris in a vote of confidence. Swinson insists that any government of national unity would have to be led by a more

centrist and less divisive figure, such as Harriet Harman or Kenneth Clarke. The truth is, though, that the “national unity” scheme was always a chimera. Even if the Government were to be

defeated in a vote of confidence as soon as Parliament reassembles next week, there is no plausible scenario under which Boris could be evicted from Number Ten without a general election —

one fought with him as the incumbent. The constitutional reasoning behind this view is authoritatively set out by the distinguished historian Jonathan Clark here. Moreover, it is

increasingly unlikely that there will be a majority in Parliament to remove Boris while he is actively negotiating with Brussels about the backstop. At the G-7, Donald Tusk confirmed that

the 30 days’ grace, proposed by Angela Merkel and reiterated by Emmanuel Macron last week, does imply a genuine opportunity for Britain to come up with a new offer. A no confidence motion

would appeal only to those MPs who are so determined to bring down Boris that they would risk a no-deal Brexit while there is still a chance of a new deal. That category may include Corbyn

but it would not include a number of his own Labour MPs. And Jo Swinson, too, must be careful not to seem to be putting party before country. A senior Cabinet minister told TheArticle

recently that if the Government can get through September, then “October will be much easier”. As things stand, both the international and the domestic situation is looking much more

favourable for them than before the summer break. September will see hard pounding in Parliament and the Prime Minister will continue to walk a tightrope. Yet while a _coup de main_cannot be

ruled out, a _coup d’état_now looks all but impossible. No wonder Boris Johnson looks like the Ben Stokes of British politics.