Could a may-corbyn compromise on brexit lead to a coalition of the unwilling? | thearticle

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will sit down today to agree a compromise on Brexit that could make or break both leaders and both their parties. The risks for the Prime Minister are so

obvious that they scarcely need to be spelled out. Indeed, Jacob Rees-Mogg has already done so: “I think getting the support of a known Marxist is not likely to instil confidence in

Conservatives.”  But there are risks for the Labour leader too. His party is just as divided as Mrs May’s and on Brexit he is at odds with both MPs and members. Corbyn is in a strong

bargaining position, but he may be tempted to overplay his hand. Mrs May has been excoriated by many for her supposed inflexibility — though her own party sees her as lacking in conviction —

but compared to Corbyn she is sweet reasonableness itself. The man has never been known to budge an inch on anything in his life.  The difficulty of finding an agreement that will stick is

compounded by uncertainty about two other factors: Parliament and the EU. Until the Prime Minister’s televised announcement last night — which took everybody outside the Cabinet by surprise,

including Corbyn himself, the Commons had been due to continue with Sir Oliver Letwin’s scheme of indicative votes in order to discover which form of Brexit could command a majority. That

discovery process, already problematic enough, has now been thrown into even more doubt.  The EU, meanwhile, has reacted with caution to Mrs May’s démarche. The Commission is clearly still

sceptical that the British will come up with a proposal that could be accepted at next week’s emergency summit. The Labour plan of a customs union, plus elements of the single market and

protection for consumers, workers and the environment, may sound fair to many British ears. But to the Eurocrats it still smacks of “having your cake and eating it”, the Brexit à la carte

that Michel Barnier has been under orders to reject, lest it tempt other recalcitrant EU members to follow suit. Even if such objections were surmounted, the first question for Brussels

remains: can Mrs May deliver? It is far from clear that she can carry her party with her on the basis of adopting Labour’s policy. And without Conservative (or DUP) support, a May-Corbyn

compromise simply would not fly.  Among Brexiteers, comparisons were drawn between Theresa May and Sir Robert Peel. The latter split his party in order to repeal the Corn Laws, ushering in

an era of free trade. Mrs May, the argument goes, may split her party by forcing it to swallow a soft Brexit that is seen by the grassroots as a betrayal. Others have dismissed the

comparison, not least because Peel was a great statesman with many achievements to his name, while Mrs May can so far point only to the Modern Slavery Act.  Yet what if the relevant

historical comparison is not with Robert Peel but with Ramsay MacDonald? The first Labour Prime Minister split his party over the austerity measures that he took in 1931 to halt the sterling

crisis that inaugurated the Great Depression. He and a rump of Labour ministers formed a National Government with the Conservatives, who kept him on as Prime Minister until 1935. Mocked by

Winston Churchill as the “boneless wonder”, Ramsay MacDonald has been a byword for betrayal in Labour mythology ever since.  If much of the Cabinet and parliamentary party abandon her,

Theresa May could find herself playing this role in a coalition of the unwilling with Jeremy Corbyn. A soft Brexit with her still in office, supported by the Opposition parties and Tory

Europhiles, might just about clear the Commons.  But would it be possible to form a stable administration on such a narrow basis? Almost certainly not. A general election would have to be

called as soon as Brexit was home and dry. What might be the result? In 1931, the National Government won the largest majority in history, with 554 seats out of 615. It seems unlikely that

history would be repeated, given that neither Leavers nor Remainers would be satisfied by the likely compromise, and Mrs May would almost certainly step aside rather than act as a figleaf

for a far-Left Labour government.  The desire to put Brexit behind us, however, is now so strong that almost anything is possible. The Prime Minister has embarked on a perilous course.

History is her only compass — but learning from past mistakes has never been her strong point. We can only watch and hope that she is not leading the country onto the rocks.