China, xinjiang and taiwan: time for the west to act? | thearticle

Imagine an alternative universe in which the United Kingdom had never accepted Irish independence a century ago. In this scenario, the British Government has decided to recover Ireland by

force. Every day, scores of RAF warplanes fly over the Republic, while the British Army and the Royal Navy openly prepare to invade. The BBC announces that war is imminent. Meanwhile, in

Northern Ireland, about 10 per cent of the population — all Catholic nationalists — have been rounded up and incarcerated in concentration camps. There men, women and children are

brainwashed, tortured and unknown numbers are murdered. Forced sterilisation of Catholic women is carried out on a vast scale, Catholic churches are closed and the nationalist community

officially ceases to exist. This _de facto _genocide is conducted in secrecy and justified on grounds of security. Does anyone suppose that if such things were taking place in the British

Isles, the rest of the world would be turning a blind eye? Would the United Nations be looking on with seeming indifference, urging non-intervention in the Anglo-Irish conflict and treating

such crimes as an internal matter? Wouldn’t the entire media of the Western world and beyond be united in condemning the British Government? Wouldn’t the United States and the European Union

stand ready to intervene by force to prevent the threatened annexation of the Irish Republic and the enslavement of its population? All this, of course, is unthinkable in the case of

Britain and Ireland today, though something not unlike it once took place some four centuries ago. But this is the reality of what is happening right now in China. There the Republic of

Taiwan, which has been independent for more than 70 years, is being threatened with invasion on a daily basis — threats that are backed by an unprecedented show of force. In Beijing, the

state-owned _Global Times _stated in an editorial this week that the confrontation had “created a sense of urgency that war may be triggered at any time”. In the past month, 149 military

aircraft from the mainland have flown over Taiwan, forcing the island’s air force to scramble daily. The Chinese are deliberately escalating tension in what appears to be a test of President

Joe Biden’s nerve, after the US retreat from Afghanistan. Beijing’s military aggression has prompted Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen to appeal for help. Writing in _Foreign Affairs

_magazine, she warns: “If Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system. It would signal that in today’s global contest of

values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy.” She also makes it clear that, though hugely outnumbered, the 23.5 million Taiwanese will not surrender without a fight: “If its

democracy and way of life are threatened, Taiwan will do whatever it takes to defend itself.”  She means it — and the outcome would not be a foregone conclusion. Joseph Wu, Taipei’s Defence

Minister, told Australia’s ABC this week: “If China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.” China has had a bloody nose in a

dispute with a heavily armed neighbour before, when it invaded Vietnam in 1979. Both sides claimed victory after heavy losses, but Beijing was forced to retreat. In the case of Taiwan,

moreover, Western intervention remains highly likely, with the most comparable scenario being the Korean War, which also ended in stalemate.  Ominously, the most popular film in China at the

moment is a nationalist epic about Korea: _The Battle of Lake Changjin._ It celebrates a victory of the Communist Chinese over UN forces led by American troops. The latter are shown being

slaughtered and their depiction is described by a lone Chinese critic as “vile”. Yet this crude propaganda film broke global records at the box office last weekend, earning more than twice

as much as the new Bond, _No Time to Die, _or the latest Marvel movie _Venom. _It is as if the Chinese public were being prepared for war not only with Taiwan but with America, too.

Remember: almost five million people died in the Korean War. Meanwhile, further gruesome details have emerged about the persecution of the Uighurs in Xinjiang. A former Chinese detective,

known only as Jiang and now in hiding in Europe, revealed on CNN that he had been ordered to torture and kill innocent civilians in one of the detention camps where some two million members

of the Turkic Muslim ethnic minority are being held — up to 10 per cent of the province’s population of 25 million. Jiang testified to the brutalisation not only of the victims but the

perpetrators too: “Some [officers] see this as a job, some are just psychopaths.” The example being made of the Uighurs, many of whom have never accepted the legitimacy of Chinese rule

(which began by conquest three centuries ago), is not lost on the Taiwanese. In the event of a mainland occupation, the treatment of Taiwanese “secessionists” (a category that could be

stretched to include most of the population) would most likely resemble that of the Uighurs. By comparison, Hong Kongers so far have been treated leniently, though that has much to do with

the value of the former colony’s financial system to Beijing. Still, the crushing of freedom and democracy in Hong Kong as the rest of the world stood by has caused mass emigration. Xi

Jinping may be gambling that Taiwan will fall into his hands without military intervention from the West. Despite its contempt for the treaty it signed guaranteeing the human and civic

rights of Hong Kongers, Beijing sets great store on the fact that the UN does not recognise Taiwan as an independent country.  The fact that the Taiwanese know what fate awaits them under

Chinese mainland rule makes it certain that they will fight to defend their homeland. This catastrophe must be avoided at all costs. Britain has already done its part by sending HMS _Queen

Elizabeth, _the Royal Navy’s largest and most powerful warship, with her escorts to the region. At present, she is conducting exercises with two aircraft carriers of the United States

Indo-Pacific command, USS _Ronald Reagan _and USS _Carl Vinson, _as part of a fleet of 17 vessels from six countries. The presence of this armada sends a powerful signal to Xi Jinping that

he should not go beyond sabre-rattling. But the West cannot maintain such a presence indefinitely. A comprehensive, ideally diplomatic solution to the confrontation is urgently needed. Boris

Johnson will speak mainly about domestic politics at Manchester today. What keeps the Prime Minister awake at nights, however, is China. He should follow Mrs Thatcher’s example and summon

an expert seminar to Chequers. It should not be limited to Sinologists, but include more general historians of the calibre of Niall Ferguson, Andrew Roberts and Tom Holland. We are at a

crucial juncture in world history. Boris knows that he must get his policy towards China right, or risk unimaginable consequences. Appeasement is no longer feasible. Action is required. The

only question is: what kind of action would deter China, save Taiwan and bring the world back from the brink of war? A MESSAGE FROM THEARTICLE _We are the only publication that’s committed

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