Brexit — rejoice? Or rejoin? | thearticle

“Thank goodness,” is the prevailing mood. “Now we can all move on.” Thousands were cheering in Parliament Square and elsewhere around the country when finally we left. Other were crying. But

most people are probably just letting out a sigh of relief. While trade negotiations follow, the issue of Brexit itself is now resolved. Or is it? We have to wait and see how many of the

Remainers will now become Rejoiners. We got some clues in the European Parliament debate on Wednesday, which was followed by a vote to approve the withdrawal agreement. If approval had been

denied, it would not have prevented Brexit — it would have meant leaving with “no deal”. It was approved by 621 to 49. Molly Scott Cato, Green MEP, burst into tears and told the European

Parliament: “One day I will be back in this chamber”. The Green Group of MEPs issued a statement that: “We will leave a light on.” (Which doesn’t seem terribly eco-friendly). Labour’s 10

MEPs waved a banner reading: “It’s not goodbye, it’s au revoir.” Catherine Bearder, for the Lib Dems, declared: “We will one day return I am sure.” It could be argued that they were getting

carried away by emotion. Cynics might even suggest some personal element to their grief, as they contemplate the loss of generous salaries and expenses and prepare for more frugal

employment. Yet the question of rejoining the EU is sure to be on the agenda of their political parties. While some might fret that it was best to wait a few years, others will be passionate

that the demand should be immediate. They will be keen to seize on any bad news and blame it on Brexit. But they would need rather a lot of bad news for most people to relish the question

of our EU membership being reopened. Supposing, whisper it softly, if all goes rather smoothly. If our trade and travel with the rest of the world increases rather than being restricted. If

the legal and tax changes we take with our new found independence are regarded as sensible rather than damaging. Then if we did rejoin what would be the terms? New applicants are expected to

join the euro and I suppose we would be treated as such. So we would have to abolish the pound. Our net contribution to the EU budget would be even higher than during our previous period as

members, as the rebate — or “abatement” — would be expected to go. Guy Verhofstadt, the Belgian MEP who was involved in the Brexit negotiations doesn’t sound too flexible. In the European

Parliament debate, he said: “There is a lesson to learn from Brexit — to deeply reform the union, to make it a real union in the coming years. That means a union without opt-ins, opt-outs,

rebates, exceptions and, above all, without unanimity rules and veto rights. Only then can we act, and only then will we defend our interests, and only then will we defend our values. It is

this lack of effectiveness that is the problem that we have seen in Brexit.” James Forsyth wondered in the _Spectator_ whether we would “be expected to commit to ‘ever closer union’ if in

the future it were to return to the fold?” Full harmonisation of tax rates? Integration of our armed forces? The submergence of our diplomatic service into EU embassies with us ceasing to

have our own foreign policy? Forsyth adds: “Even if, say, a party were to win an election on a Rejoin platform, that would not be sufficient for Britain to actually rejoin. The view in

Brussels is that there would be no point in readmitting the UK unless there was a broad, cross-party consensus in favour. There is no desire to have countries coming and going at regular

intervals, depending on who wins an election.” If we did come crawling back begging to be allowed back in, I’m sure the Eurocrats would be delighted. But they could hardly resist imposing

punitive terms. At present, the main relevance to all this is in Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists, ironically given their talk of “independence”, are keen for Scotland to be absorbed in

the EU almost regardless of the demands made to hand over power to Brussels. The general election in December gave them some encouragement. They will not get a referendum on leaving the UK

any time soon. But, for the time being, the SNP will see every reason to rally behind a pro EU message. For the Conservatives, I doubt there will be a significant rejoin faction emerging.

The simple reason is that those who refused to accept Brexit have already left. That leaves Labour in a tricky position. Most of their members would probably like to rejoin, but it is hard

to see that being a vote winner. Perhaps they will carry on fudging the question of our EU membership. That would make it all the more tempting for the Lib Dems and the Green Party to become

the rejoineers. Finally, after all these years, the Conservatives will be the party that is united on the European question. Conservative politicians will be able to say that really we need

to focus on the economy, on transport, housing, the police, schools and hospitals. What a shame that other politicians are still fighting old battles. That is the trap that opposition

politicians seem keen to march into. Will they press ahead, driven by emotion? Or pull back, reflecting on the electoral calculations? Either way I expect some lively discussions.