Boris strategy of targeting public's three key domestic priorities leads to five-point bump in the polls

Ashley Kirk. Josh Wilson Data Journalists 12 August 2019 11:00am BST A series of Boris Johnson pledges on Brexit, the NHS and crime has lifted the Conservatives five points in the national

polls, according to new Telegraph analysis.  Monthly polling shows that Brexit and the NHS are frequently the public's two largest concerns, and crime has risen in the last year to

become the third biggest worry.  With pledges of an extra £1.8bn for the NHS and an extra 20,000 police officers, as well as his "do or die" promise that Brexit will be completed

by October, Mr Johnson has targeted these three issues head on - and the polls show this strategy is paying off.  Since Mr Johnson took over as Prime Minister on 24 July, the Conservatives

has picked up 5.5 percentage points in their 10-poll national average, while the Brexit Party has lost 5.2 percentage points. All other parties have stayed almost static, staying within one

percentage point of their starting point. Johnson has squeezed Brexit Party support since taking office This shift in public opinion means that Mr Johnson’s arrival in 10 Downing Street has

resulted in the biggest poll bounce for a sitting prime minister for over two decades. The fact that the Tories' polling bounce has come almost solely at the Brexit Party's expense

indicates that the Tory leader's strategy of promising Brexit by October 31, "do or die", is doing its part in pulling pro-Brexit Conservatives back into the fold. The party

still has some way to go, however, to retake the near 40 per cent polling share it was achieving in early March - before the original Article 50 deadline was missed and Nigel Farage's

Brexit Party came on the scene. BREXIT HAS BEEN TOP CONCERN SINCE 2018 - BUT NHS AND CRIME STILL BIG WORRIES Brexit, healthcare and crime are the top three concerns for British people in

July 2019,  according to monthly issues tracking from Ipsos MORI. Four in ten (39 per cent) see the NHS as a big issue for the country, while a quarter (25 per cent) say the same about

crime, according to their July figures. Six in 10 (60 per cent) say the same about Brexit. Brexit, NHS and crime are the country’s top concerns All of these are areas which Mr Johnson is

hammering hard, with a series of promises aimed at persuading people to come back into the Tory fold.  In the last few weeks, Mr Johnson has pledged £1.8bn for 20 new hospital upgrades,

promising "more beds" and "shorter waiting times", as well as £1.1bn for 20,000 more police to "make our streets safer". This specifically targets the top

issues that Ipsos MORI has identified, indicating that Mr Johnson is reaching beyond the converted Brexit Party voters and aiming to convince a broader general election-winning coalition. 

Unlike Brexit, which only became a concern for British people during the referendum campaign, the NHS has been a top concern since 2014 - indicating that the new Prime Minister will need to

be seen to be tackling its growing problems if he hopes to win the next general election. One concern for Number 10, however, will be that most people currently don't have confidence

that Mr Johnson will deliver his NHS spending commitments.  His isn't the first NHS funding pledge made by the Tories recently, with former prime minister Theresa May unveiling a £20bn

boost last year. According to YouGov polling, some 56 per cent of people said that they were not very confident or not confident at all that the NHS will receive enough funding under Mr

Johnson.  Most people aren't confident in Boris' NHS pledge IMPROVED APPEAL IN THE NORTH AND MIDLANDS With the architects of the Vote Leave campaign now at the helm of the

Conservative Party, Leave voters and 2017 Conservative voters are returning in droves, according to polling from YouGov. Almost half of Leave voters now say that they will vote for the

Tories, up from a third earlier this month, while almost seven in ten former Conservative voters now say they will vote Conservative again, up from 57 per cent previously. Mr Johnson’s 

promise to leave the EU by Hallowe'en has dramatically increased the Conservatives appeal in the North and in the Midlands, both of which had many areas that voted heavily for Leave.

Boris Johnson is gaining Tory support across demographic groups Polling from YouGov reveals that support for the Conservatives in the Midlands/Wales is now up to a third, while in the North

it has increased from 20 per cent to 27 per cent. Surprisingly, the proportion of Scottish voters saying they will vote for Mr Johnson’s party is also now one in five, up from 13 per cent.

However, the Prime Minister has struggled to make his message heard among younger voters and within the capital, two demographic groups that have consistently proven to be Remain supporters.