Why the underdog Stars could provide betting value in NHL Western Conference finals

It seems the entire hockey world is ready to anoint the Edmonton Oilers as the Western Conference champions. 

Not only is Edmonton up, 3-1, on Dallas in their best-of-seven series, but the Oilers have been the most dominant team in the playoffs by a healthy margin. 

The Oilers are 11-4 with a plus-17 goal difference (59 GF, 42 GA) in 15 games during the postseason, and they’re 11-2 with a plus-22 goal difference (52 GF, 30 GA) since losing the first two

games of Round 1 to the Los Angeles Kings. 

It also seems like Edmonton is getting better with each passing game, even as the opponents get tougher.

The Oilers dispatched the Kings in six games, but needed just five against the Vegas Golden Knights and they’ll have a chance to condemn the Stars to the same fate Thursday night. 

The most surprising part of Edmonton’s surge during the past month is that its weaknesses — an inconsistent defense and suspect goaltending — have turned into strengths. 

The Oilers are 5-1 over their past six contests, and they’ve allowed one goal or fewer in five of those games, including three shutouts. 

That’s a stunning development when you recall that goaltender Stuart Skinner was persona non grata in Edmonton after two rough outings to start the playoffs. 

All of this adds up to the Oilers sitting pretty as -950 favorites to win the Western Conference finals. 

If you believe that this series is as good as over, the best value on the board would be Leon Draisaitl to win the Conn Smythe at +700 odds. 

Connor McDavid is the clear favorite to win the award, but the gap between him and Draisaitl should not be this wide. Draisaitl is just one point behind McDavid in the scoring race, and he’s

been a force of nature throughout the tournament. He also has a knack for scoring massively important goals. 

But what about those of you who are brave enough to believe that the Stars will still be heard from in this series? 

The Stanley Cup playoffs have a way of zagging just when everyone is sure they’re going to zig. Heck, the Oilers and Stars were both written off in Round 1. 

And there is a feasible path forward for the Stars in this series. 

Skinner has been outstanding since he was forced back into the starting role after Calvin Pickard (who replaced Skinner as the starter midway through Round 1) got hurt. He looks like a

goaltender on a mission right now, but we’ve seen this act out of him before. 

Skinner’s form has a habit of swinging wildly from outstanding to dreadful without warning. 

It’s also important to note that the Stars have been more unlucky than bad in this series. 

Their 5-on-5 numbers lag behind Edmonton’s slightly, but it’s a lot closer than you’d think given the series scoreline. 

There are several ways to attack the betting board if you think the Stars can pull this off. Grabbing the +610 odds on Dallas is a fine wager, but a better approach may be creating a

rollover parlay. 

To do that, you’d back Dallas on the moneyline in Game 5 and then take your initial stake plus the profits and place it all on the Game 6 moneyline, and then do it again for Game 7. 

Doing some quick back-of-the-napkin math, you’d get about +750 as the odds on a moneyline rollover compared to the +610 on backing the Stars to win the series. 

And if they do, you then have a decision to make: Do you pocket your earnings? Or do you continue the rollover by plunking your loot on the Stars to win the Stanley Cup Final?

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win

bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.