Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus

The literature emphasizes the important relationships between the consumption and production of food, energy and water, and environmental challenges such as climate change and loss of

biodiversity. New tools are needed to analyse the future dynamics of this nexus. Here, we introduce a set of model-based scenarios and associated Sankey diagrams that enable analysis of the

relevant relationships and dynamics, as well as the options to formulate response strategies. The scenarios show that if no new policies are adopted, food production and energy generation

could further increase by around 60%, and water consumption by around 20% over the period 2015–2050, leading to further degradation of resources and increasing environmental pressure.

Response strategies in terms of climate policies, higher agricultural yields, dietary change and reduction of food waste are analysed to reveal how they may contribute to reversing these

trends, and possibly even lead to a reduction of land use in the future.

The data relating to the scenarios described in this paper are available for download from https://models.pbl.nl/image/index.php/Download. The data supporting the figures are available from

the IMAGE website at PBL (https://go.nature.com/32CZSLh).

The research presented in this Analysis benefited from funding under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, under grant agreement no 689150 SIM4NEXUS and the

PICASSO project (EU ERC, contract 819566).

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

Detlef P. Van Vuuren, David L. Bijl, Patrick Bogaart, Stefan C. Dekker, David E. H. J. Gernaat & Mathijs Harmsen

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands

Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, Jonathan C. Doelman, David E. H. J. Gernaat & Mathijs Harmsen

Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

D.P.V.V. and D.L.B. designed the experiments. All authors contributed to the scenario analysis and the writing of the paper.

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