Response of pacific-sector antarctic ice shelves to the el niño/southern oscillation

ABSTRACT Satellite observations over the past two decades have revealed increasing loss of grounded ice in West Antarctica, associated with floating ice shelves that have been thinning.

Thinning reduces an ice shelf’s ability to restrain grounded-ice discharge, yet our understanding of the climate processes that drive mass changes is limited. Here, we use ice-shelf height

data from four satellite altimeter missions (1994–2017) to show a direct link between ice-shelf height variability in the Antarctic Pacific sector and changes in regional atmospheric

circulation driven by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. This link is strongest from the Dotson to Ross ice shelves and weaker elsewhere. During intense El Niño years, height increase by

accumulation exceeds the height decrease by basal melting, but net ice-shelf mass declines as basal ice loss exceeds ice gain by lower-density snow. Our results demonstrate a substantial

response of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to global and regional climate variability, with rates of change in height and mass on interannual timescales that can be comparable to the longer-term

trend, and with mass changes from surface accumulation offsetting a significant fraction of the changes in basal melting. This implies that ice-shelf height and mass variability will

increase as interannual atmospheric variability increases in a warming climate. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of subscription content, access via your

institution ACCESS OPTIONS Access through your institution Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription $29.99 / 30 days cancel

any time Learn more Subscribe to this journal Receive 12 print issues and online access $259.00 per year only $21.58 per issue Learn more Buy this article * Purchase on SpringerLink *

Instant access to full article PDF Buy now Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout ADDITIONAL ACCESS OPTIONS: * Log in * Learn about institutional

subscriptions * Read our FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS ANTARCTIC CALVING LOSS RIVALS ICE-SHELF THINNING Article 10 August 2022 ANTARCTIC ICE-SHELF

ADVANCE DRIVEN BY ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC AND SEA-ICE CIRCULATION Article 05 May 2022 PROGRESSIVE UNANCHORING OF ANTARCTIC ICE SHELVES SINCE 1973 Article Open access 21 February 2024 CHANGE

HISTORY * _ 03 JULY 2018 In the version of this Article originally published, the word ‘from’ was incorrectly spelt as ‘form’ in Fig. 4b–d. In addition, the coloured scale bar was

incorrectly labelled with a range of –1.5 to –1.5; this should have been –1.5 to +1.5. These errors have now been corrected in the online versions. _ * _ 20 JANUARY 2018 In the version of

this Article originally published, there was a spelling mistake in Figure 3 where ‘La Niña’ was incorrectly spelled ‘La Niño’. This has been corrected in all versions of the Article. _

REFERENCES * Church, J. A. et al. in _Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis_ (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1137–1177 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013). * Fretwell, P. et al.

Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. _Cryosphere_ 7, 375–393 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Bamber, J. L., Riva, R. E. M., Vermeersen, B. L. A. &

LeBrocq, A. M. Reassessment of the potential sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. _Science_ 324, 901–903 (2009). Article  Google Scholar  * Favier, L. et al.

Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability. _Nat. Clim. Change_ 4, 117–121 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Joughin, I., Smith, B. E. & Medley, B. Marine

ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. _Science_ 344, 735–738 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D.

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. _Nature_ 531, 591–597 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice

shelf. _J. Glaciol._ 13, 3–11 (1974). Article  Google Scholar  * Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine

Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41, 3502–3509 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. &

Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. _Science_ 348, 327–331 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Pritchard, H. D. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal

melting of ice shelves. _Nature_ 484, 502–505 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Jacobs, S. S., Jenkins, A., Giulivi, C. F. & Dutrieux, P. Stronger ocean circulation and increased

melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf. _Nat. Geosci._ 4, 1–5 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Thoma, M., Jenkins, A., Holland, D. & Jacobs, S. Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water

intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 35, L18602 (2008). Article  Google Scholar  * Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D. S. & Jenkins, A.

Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water Inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. _Ann. Glaciol._ 53, 19–28 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  *

Dutrieux, P. et al. Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability. _Science_ 343, 174–178 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Jacobs, S. et al. Getz Ice Shelf

melting response to changes in ocean forcing. _J. Geophys. Res. Oceans_ 118, 4152–4168 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Turner, J. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Antarctica. _Int. J.

Climatol._ 24, 1–31 (2004). Article  Google Scholar  * Raphael, M. N. et al. The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, change, and impact on Antarctic climate. _Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc._ 97,

111–121 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J., Turner, J. & Phillips, T. The influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Low on the climate of

West Antarctica and its representation in coupled climate model simulations. _J. Clim._ 26, 6633–6648 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Turner, J. et al. Atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions

in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. _Rev. Geophys._ 55, G000532 (2017). Article  Google Scholar  * Philander, S. G. _El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation_ (Academic

Press, San Diego, 1989). * Schneider, D. P., Okumura, Y. & Deser, C. Observed Antarctic interannual climate variability and tropical linkages. _J. Clim._ 25, 4048–4066 (2012). Article 

Google Scholar  * Sasgen, I., Dobslaw, H., Martinec, Z. & Thomas, M. Satellite gravimetry observation of Antarctic snow accumulation related to ENSO. _Earth Planet. Sci. Lett._ 299,

352–358 (2010). Article  Google Scholar  * Genthon, C. & Cosme, E. Intermittent signature of ENSO in west-Antarctic precipitation. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 30, 2081 (2003). Article  Google

Scholar  * Medley, B. et al. Airborne-radar and ice-core observations of annual snow accumulation over Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica confirm the spatiotemporal variability of global and

regional atmospheric models. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 40, 3649–3654 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Steig, E. J. et al. Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with

the past 2,000 years. _Nat. Geosci._ 6, 372–375 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Yuan, X. ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: a synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. _Antarct.

Sci._ 16, 415–425 (2004). Article  Google Scholar  * Raphael, M. N. & Hobbs, W. The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on Antarctic sea ice during ice advance and

retreat seasons. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41, L060365 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Marshall, G. J. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. _J. Clim._ 16,

4134–4143 (2003). Article  Google Scholar  * Abram, N. J. et al. Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. _Nat. Clim. Change_ 4, 564–569 (2014). Article  Google

Scholar  * Fogt, R. L., Jones, J. M. & Renwick, J. Seasonal zonal asymmetries in the Southern Annular Mode and their impact on regional temperature anomalies. _J. Clim._ 25, 6253–6270

(2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Fogt, R. L., Bromwich, D. H. & Hines, K. M. Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. _Clim. Dyn._ 36, 1555–1576

(2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Clem, K. R. & Fogt, R. L. Varying roles of ENSO and SAM on the Antarctic Peninsula climate in austral spring. _J. Geophys. Res. Atmos._ 118,

11481–11492 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. & Padman, L. Constructing improved decadal records of Antarctic ice shelf height change from multiple

satellite radar altimeters. _Remote Sens. Environ._ 177, 192–205 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Cleveland, W. S. Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. _J. Am.

Stat. Assoc._ 74, 829–836 (1979). Article  Google Scholar  * Politis, D. N. & Romano, J. P. The stationary bootstrap. _J. Am. Stat. Assoc._ 89, 1303–1313 (1994). Article  Google Scholar

  * Mudelsee, M. Estimating Pearson’s correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. _Math. Geol._ 35, 651–665 (2003). Article  Google

Scholar  * Huang, B. et al. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons. _J. Clim._ 28, 911–930 (2014). Article  Google Scholar

  * Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. _Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc._ 137, 553–597 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  *

Padman, L., King, M., Goring, D., Corr, H. & Coleman, R. Ice-shelf elevation changes due to atmospheric pressure variations. _J. Glaciol._ 49, 521–526 (2003). Article  Google Scholar  *

Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E. & Kuipers Munneke, P. A new, high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica (1979–2010) based on

regional atmospheric climate modeling. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 39, L04501 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  * Van Wessem, J. M. et al. Improved representation of East Antarctic surface mass

balance in a regional atmospheric climate model. _J. Glaciol._ 60, 761–770 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice-shelf melting around

Antarctica. _Science_ 341, 266–270 (2013). Article  Google Scholar  * Depoorter, M. A. et al. Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves. _Nature_ 502, 89–92 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar  * Ghil, M. et al. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. _Rev. Geophys._ 40, 3–41 (2002). Article  Google Scholar  * Vautard, R., Yiou, P. & Ghil,

M. Singular-spectrum analysis: A toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. _Physica D_ 58, 95–126 (1992). Article  Google Scholar  * Allen, M. R. & Smith, L. A. Monte Carlo SSA:

Detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of colored noise. _J. Clim._ 9, 3373–3404 (1996). Article  Google Scholar  * Raphael, M. N. A zonal wave 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere.

_Geophys. Res. Lett._ 31, L23212 (2004). Article  Google Scholar  * Fogt, R. L. Sidebar 6.1: El Niño and Antarctica. In _State of the Climate in 2015 _(eds Blunden, J. & Arndt, D. S.) 

Vol. 97, 162 (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Boston, 2016). * Frieler, K. et al. Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. _Nat. Clim. Change_

5, 348–352 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. _Nat. Clim. Change_ 4, 111–116 (2014). Article  Google

Scholar  * Siegfried, M. R., Fricker, H. A., Roberts, M., Scambos, T. A. & Tulaczyk, S. A decade of West Antarctic subglacial lake interactions from combined ICESat and CryoSat-2

altimetry. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41, 891–898 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * McMillan, M. et al. Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41,

L060111 (2014). Google Scholar  * Chuter, S. J. & Bamber, J. L. Antarctic ice shelf thickness from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 42, L066515 (2015). Article  Google

Scholar  * Maslanik, J. & Stroeve, J. _Near-Real-Time DMSP SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations, Version 1_ (NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive

Center, Boulder, 1999). Google Scholar  * Cavalieri, D. J., Gloersen, P. & Campbell, W. J. Determination of sea ice parameters with the NIMBUS 7 SMMR. _J. Geophys. Res. Atmosph._ 89,

5355–5369 (1984). Article  Google Scholar  * Liu, W. et al. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and structural uncertainty estimations.

_J. Clim._ 28, 931–951 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Bracegirdle, T. J. & Turner, J. Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the

Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 43, L067143 (2016). Article  Google Scholar  * Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Helsen, M. M. & Van Den Broeke, M. R. An

improved semi-empirical model for the densification of Antarctic firn. _Cryosphere_ 5, 809–819 (2011). Article  Google Scholar  * Mudelsee, M. TAUEST: A Computer Program for Estimating

Persistence in Unevenly Spaced Weather/Climate Time Series. _Comput. Geosci._ 28, 69–72 (2002). Article  Google Scholar  * Golyandina, N. & Zhigljavsky, A. _Singular Spectrum Analysis

for Time Series_ (Springer, Berlin, 2013). * Elsner, J. B. & Tsonis, A. A. _Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool in Time Series Analysis_ (Springer, Berlin, 1996). * Groth, A., Ghil,

M., Hallegatte, S. & Dumas, P. The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles. _J. Bus. Cycle Meas. Anal._ 2015, 63–81 (2015). Article  Google Scholar  * Wåhlin, A. K., Yuan, X.,

Björk, G. & Nohr, C. Inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water in the Central Amundsen Shelf. _J. Phys. Oceanogr._ 40, 1427–1434 (2010). Article  Google Scholar  * Moholdt, G., Padman, L.

& Fricker, H. A. Basal mass budget of Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, Antarctica, derived from Lagrangian analysis of ICESat altimetry. _J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf._ 119,

2014JF003171 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. & Scheuchl, B. Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to

2013. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41, 1576–1584 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Sutterley, T. C. et al. Mass loss of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica from four independent

techniques. _Geophys. Res. Lett._ 41, 2014GL061940 (2014). Article  Google Scholar  * Rignot, E. et al. Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate

modelling. _Nat. Geosci._ 1, 106–110 (2008). Article  Google Scholar  * van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Reijmer, C. H. & van Meijgaard, E. Reassessment of the Antarctic

surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model. _J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres_ 111, D11104 (2006). Article  Google Scholar  * Bracegirdle, T. J. &

Marshall, G. J. The reliability of Antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses. _J. Clim._ 25, 7138–7146 (2012). Article  Google Scholar  Download

references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was funded by NASA (awards NNX12AN50H 002 (93735A), NNX10AG19G and NNX13AP60G). This is ESR contribution 159. We thank J. Zwally’s Ice Altimetry group

at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for distributing their data sets for ERS-1/2 and Envisat satellite radar-altimeter missions (http://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov), and the European Space

Agency (ESA) for distributing their CryoSat-2 data. We thank S. Ligtenberg, M. van Wessem and M. van den Broeke for providing the surface mass balance and firn densification model-derived

products. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA F. S. Paolo, H. A. Fricker, S. Adusumilli & M.

R. Siegfried * Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA F. S. Paolo * Earth & Space Research, Corvallis, OR, USA L. Padman * Earth & Space

Research, Seattle, WA, USA S. Howard * Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA M. R. Siegfried Authors * F. S. Paolo View author publications You can also search

for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * L. Padman View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * H. A. Fricker View author publications You can also

search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * S. Adusumilli View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * S. Howard View author publications You

can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * M. R. Siegfried View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS F.S.P. and L.P.

devised the study. F.S.P. processed the data and performed the analyses. F.S.P., L.P. and H.A.F. wrote the manuscript. S.A. and M.R.S. provided the CryoSat-2 time series. S.H. processed the

ERA-Interim and sea-ice products. All authors discussed the results and reviewed the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR Correspondence to F. S. Paolo. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING FINANCIAL

INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published

maps and institutional affiliations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary figures. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS

ARTICLE Paolo, F.S., Padman, L., Fricker, H.A. _et al._ Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. _Nature Geosci_ 11, 121–126 (2018).

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0033-0 Download citation * Received: 16 July 2017 * Accepted: 20 November 2017 * Published: 08 January 2018 * Issue Date: February 2018 * DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0033-0 SHARE THIS ARTICLE Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Get shareable link Sorry, a shareable link is not

currently available for this article. Copy to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative