A risk assessment framework for the future of forest microbiomes in a changing climate

ABSTRACT Microbes inhabiting the above- and belowground tissues of forest trees and soils play a critical role in the response of forest ecosystems to global climate change. However,

generalizations about the vulnerability of the forest microbiome to climate change have been challenging due to responses that are often context dependent. Here we apply a risk assessment

framework to evaluate microbial community vulnerability to climate change across forest ecosystems. We define factors that determine exposure risk and processes that amplify or buffer

sensitivity to change, and describe feedback mechanisms that will modulate this exposure and sensitivity as climatic change progresses. This risk assessment approach unites microbial ecology

and forest ecology to develop a more comprehensive understanding of forest vulnerability in the twenty-first century. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of

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* Log in * Learn about institutional subscriptions * Read our FAQs * Contact customer support SIMILAR CONTENT BEING VIEWED BY OTHERS FOREST MICROBIOME AND GLOBAL CHANGE Article 20 March 2023

FUNGAL COMMUNITY COMPOSITION PREDICTS FOREST CARBON STORAGE AT A CONTINENTAL SCALE Article Open access 16 March 2024 UNVEILING AFRICAN RAINFOREST COMPOSITION AND VULNERABILITY TO GLOBAL

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feedback on this manuscript, and A. Venturini for help with translating our abstract into Portuguese for our readership. Additionally, we would like to thank D. Martinez for her input on

potential synergies between Indigenous and Western science in the context of this article. AUTHOR INFORMATION Author notes * These authors contributed equally: C. E. Willing, P. T.

Pellitier. AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA C. E. Willing, P. T. Pellitier, M. E. Van Nuland, J. Alvarez-Manjarrez, L. Berrios, K. N.

Chin, L. M. Villa, J. J. Yeam & K. G. Peay * University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, USA C. E. Willing * Society for the Protection of

Underground Networks (SPUN), Dover, DE, USA M. E. Van Nuland * Micología Integral, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico J. Alvarez-Manjarrez *

Karuk Tribe, Happy Camp, CA, USA S. D. Bourque & W. Tripp * Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA V. O. Leshyk Authors * C. E. Willing

View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * P. T. Pellitier View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar *

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inPubMed Google Scholar * L. Berrios View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * K. N. Chin View author publications You can also search for this

author inPubMed Google Scholar * L. M. Villa View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * J. J. Yeam View author publications You can also search

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can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS C.E.W., P.T.P. and K.G.P. jointly conceived of the paper. C.E.W. and P.T.P. jointly wrote the paper with input from all

co-authors. C.E.W. and P.T.P. share first authorship. C.E.W., L.M.V., S.D.B. and W.T. conceived of and wrote Box 1. V.O.L. designed Fig. 1 with input from C.E.W. and P.T.P. C.E.W. designed

Fig. 2 with input from M.E.V.N. and P.T.P. Figure 3 was designed by M.E.V.N., C.E.W. and J.A.-M. P.T.P. wrote Box 2 with input from call co-authors. Figure 4 was designed by C.E.W. and

P.T.P. All authors have read and approved the final version of the paper. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS Correspondence to C. E. Willing or P. T. Pellitier. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors declare no competing interests. PEER REVIEW PEER REVIEW INFORMATION _Nature Climate Change_ thanks Eleonora Egidi, Kevin Newsham and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their

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Van Nuland, M.E. _et al._ A risk assessment framework for the future of forest microbiomes in a changing climate. _Nat. Clim. Chang._ 14, 448–461 (2024).

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02000-7 Download citation * Received: 15 September 2022 * Accepted: 25 March 2024 * Published: 29 April 2024 * Issue Date: May 2024 * DOI:

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