Disconnects between ecological theory and data in phenological mismatch research

ABSTRACT Climate change may lead to phenological mismatches, where the timing of critical events between interacting species becomes desynchronized, with potential negative consequences.

Evidence documenting negative impacts on fitness is mixed. The Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis, the most common hypothesis underlying these studies, offers testable assumptions and

predictions to determine consequences of phenological mismatch when combined with a pre-climate change baseline. Here, we highlight how improved approaches could rapidly advance mechanistic

understanding. We find that, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet collected the data required to test this hypothesis well, and 71% of studies fail to define a baseline.

Experiments that clearly link timing to fitness and test extremes, integration across approaches and null models would aid robust predictions of shifts with climate change. Access through

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PHENOLOGY VARIES WITH PHYLOGENY BUT NOT BY TROPHIC LEVEL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Article 04 September 2024 STRENGTHENING THE EVIDENCE BASE FOR TEMPERATURE-MEDIATED PHENOLOGICAL ASYNCHRONY AND

ITS IMPACTS Article 14 December 2020 PHENOLOGICAL SHIFTS OF ABIOTIC EVENTS, PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS ACROSS A CONTINENT Article 28 January 2021 DATA AVAILABILITY The data supporting the

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references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank J. Ehrlen, J. Myers, K. Bolmgren, K. Cottingham, L. McClenachan, M. O’Connor and S. Travers for interesting discussions, and to I. Breckheimer, A.

Ettinger and D. Loughnan for constructive feedback on the manuscript. H.M.K. thanks the professor writing retreats offered through the Centre for Academic Leadership at the University of

Ottawa for support in writing this manuscript. AUTHOR INFORMATION AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Heather M. Kharouba *

Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA Elizabeth M. Wolkovich * Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA Elizabeth M. Wolkovich * Forest

and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Elizabeth M. Wolkovich Authors * Heather M. Kharouba View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Elizabeth M. Wolkovich View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

CONTRIBUTIONS H.M.K. and E.M.W. conceived of the ideas and contributed to the writing and editing of the manuscript. H.M.K. collected and analysed the data. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

Correspondence to Heather M. Kharouba. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing interests. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PEER REVIEW INFORMATION _Nature Climate

Change_ thanks Jacob Johansson and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. PUBLISHER’S NOTE Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to

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1 and 2. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Kharouba, H.M., Wolkovich, E.M. Disconnects between ecological theory and data in phenological

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