Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

ABSTRACT Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2,3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global

population trends of the emperor penguin (_Aptenodytes forsteri_), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6,7 with

local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be

declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to

classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for conservation9. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global

projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change. Access through your institution Buy or subscribe This is a preview of

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SEA LION POPULATION FOLLOWED MULTI-DECADAL SEA SURFACE WARMING Article Open access 26 June 2020 CLIMATE-MEDIATED POPULATION DYNAMICS FOR THE WORLD’S MOST ENDANGERED SEA TURTLE SPECIES

Article Open access 02 September 2023 ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF MOA EXTINCTIONS REVEAL CONVERGENT REFUGIA THAT TODAY HARBOUR FLIGHTLESS BIRDS Article 24 July 2024 REFERENCES * Thomas, C. D. et

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Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. (eds) in _IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios_ (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000). Download references ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We acknowledge

Institute Paul Emile Victor (Programme IPEV 109) and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises for TA penguin data and the modelling groups Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and

Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for sea ice data. S.J. acknowledges support from CIRES Visiting fellowships, WHOI Unrestricted funds, the

Grayce B. Kerr Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists and H.C. acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-1145017, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and ERC

Advanced Grant 322989. We acknowledge D. Besson and K. Delord for TA penguin data management, P. Trathan and P. Fretwell for making satellite population counts available for earlier analysis

and D. Ainley, L. Desvilettes and J. Garnier for fruitful discussions. AUTHOR INFORMATION Author notes * Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Christophe Barbraud and Henri Weimerskirch: These

authors contributed equally to this work. AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS * Biology Department, MS-50, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA Stéphanie

Jenouvrier & Hal Caswell * Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS/Universiré de La Rochelle, F-79360 Villiers en Bois, France Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Christophe Barbraud &

 Henri Weimerskirch * National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA Marika Holland * National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in

Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze * University College London, Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling,

Pearson Building, Gower Street London WC1E 6BT, UK, Julienne Stroeve * Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090GE Amsterdam, Netherlands Hal Caswell

Authors * Stéphanie Jenouvrier View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Marika Holland View author publications You can also search for this

author inPubMed Google Scholar * Julienne Stroeve View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Mark Serreze View author publications You can also

search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Christophe Barbraud View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Henri Weimerskirch View author

publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar * Hal Caswell View author publications You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar CONTRIBUTIONS This

research was designed and coordinated by S.J., M.H., M.S., H.W. and H.C. Analyses were performed and coordinated by S.J. with the support of H.C. (demographic analysis), M.H. (climate

models analysis), J.S. and M.S. (sea ice observations), C.B. and H.W. (emperor penguin observations). S.J. and H.C. contributed new analytic tools. Figures were created by S.J. (emperor

penguin projections) and M.H. (sea ice maps). S.J., M.H. and H.C. wrote the paper. J.S., M.S., C.B. and H.W. contributed equally to the study. All authors discussed the results and commented

on the manuscript. CORRESPONDING AUTHORS Correspondence to Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Christophe Barbraud or Henri Weimerskirch. ETHICS DECLARATIONS COMPETING

INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION (PDF 7452 KB) RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Reprints and permissions ABOUT THIS

ARTICLE CITE THIS ARTICLE Jenouvrier, S., Holland, M., Stroeve, J. _et al._ Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change. _Nature Clim Change_ 4, 715–718

(2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2280 Download citation * Received: 08 October 2013 * Accepted: 27 May 2014 * Published: 29 June 2014 * Issue Date: August 2014 * DOI:

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