Is xavi planning to ditch the 4–3–3? (three clues that he might be)

Xavi Hernández’s rebuild at Barcelona is going well. So far. After a poor first half to the season under Ronald Koeman, Xavi’s progressive tactics, injection of positivity, and a strong

winter transfer window have set the club up for, most probably, a title challenge next season. Finances permitting. But the project is far from over. Some analysts have detected early signs

that Xavi might already be devising the next evolution of his team. I’d like to look more in depth at these ideas, whether they have any validity, and what it might mean tactically for

Xavi’s system next season. WHAT IS #XAVIBALL RIGHT NOW? It’s true that, in only a short amount of time, Xavi has already fashioned an accomplished footballing system. A 4–3–3 on paper with

very clear ideas on and off the ball. The team understands its objectives in possession, understands its positional geometry and, more recently, is doing a good job of nullifying opposition

threat. So why look to change anything? Xavi’s biggest problem is that he’s inherited a squad in limbo. With ageing players, contracts expiring, and a financial crisis behind the scenes,

it’s likely things will look very different in a couple of years to how they do now. For better or worse. It’s not outlandish for Xavi to preemptively plot a new direction. There’s some

evidence, for example, that point to a change of the team’s basic shape. Perhaps a double pivot, OR EVEN SOMETHING OF A 3–4–3 FROM THE CRUYFFIAN PLAYBOOK. From what I can gather, there are

three reasonable indications of this: 1.TRANSFER ACTIVITY IS BOLSTERING MIDFIELD AND DEFENCE With the signings of Frank Kessié and Andreas Christensen, plus apparent interest in Antonio

Rüdiger, it looks as though Barca are bolstering the midfield and defence specifically. In the current system, with only three midfielders and two centre backs, there seem far too many

options. But in a 3–4–3? It might allow Xavi to profit from the plethora of midfield talent at his disposal. _How will Franck Kessié fit in at Barca? Read the full tactical profile._ 2.

AGEING PLAYERS WILL LEAVE BIG POSITIONAL GAPS I’m talking predominantly about Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba. With apparently no replacement at hand for either, a shift to a double pivot, or

a system without full backs, might dampen the blow if their powers begin to wane. While they’ve been fundamental to the rebuild, the current system looks considerably weaker without them.

3. 3–4–3 IS A ‘NATURAL’ TACTICAL PROGRESSION FROM 4–3–3 This one is more speculative. Despite the affinity with 4–3–3 in the last couple of decades, it’s actually 3–4–3 that is the signature

formation of Cruyff’s total football. It was the system that Pep Guardiola tried to transition to following his 2010/11 success, and that Xavi used to dominate in Qatar. While it has some

major pitfalls defensively, it has also produced some of the most dominant footballing displays I’ve ever seen. So there are certainly some interesting arguments in favour of shifting the

system. But is it really going to happen? For my money, despite the clues presented, XAVI WILL STICK WITH THE 4–3–3 HE’S BUILDING RIGHT NOW. And there are some key footballing indicators

that lead me to that conclusion: 1.A DOUBLE PIVOT IS COUNTER-INTUITIVE At least if we’re talking 4–2–3–1. XaviBall is all about space, creating and exploiting it. With two attacking

midfielders (who run beyond the defence) and two perennial wingers, you can stretch the opposing back line to its maximum. It creates opportunities for diagonals, one vs ones on the flanks,

and direct balls through the press. Generating space in the final third is the bedrock of Xavi’s philosophy. Shifting from two attacking midfielders to one just wouldn’t make sense. 2. XAVI

WANTS WINGERS This is really an extension of the same idea. From day one, Xavi has made it abundantly clear that wingers are crucial to how he wants to play — and for all the reasons above.

If we’re going to discount 4–2–3–1 (which we should), the only viable option is an extremely daring 3–4–3, with wingers rather than wing backs. But there’s a problem with that: 3. CRUYFF’S

3–4–3 IS YET TO WORK IN THE MODERN GAME This is the hard lesson Pep learned in 2011/12, as he tried to maximise his excessive midfield talent against teams sitting very deep. But even Pep

had to make a significant concession for that system to be functional: Dani Alves at right wing. Without an auxiliary right back (or left back), you’re defending with just three players. It

leaves far too much ground to cover, and any good team will exploit the space down the flanks. Ultimately, despite early success with the system, Pep later abandoned it for the 4–3–3. As far

as I know, NO TOP TEAM PLAYS WITH ONLY 3 DEFENDERS OUT OF POSSESSION. It’s either 4 or 5. Always. And I don’t think either Dembélé (if he stays) or Ferran Torres are going to become wing

backs any time soon. CONCLUSION — NO IMMEDIATE EVOLUTION For now, I think it’s most pragmatic for Xavi to continue developing the base 4–3–3. Although key positions will need some

competition very soon (namely defensive midfield and full back), finding replacements is a less drastic solution than ripping up the system. A LOT OF ELITE TEAMS HAVE SETTLED ON 4–3–3 IN THE

MODERN GAME FOR A REASON. It’s expansive, it’s flexible in transition, and it exploits the most important areas on the pitch. Perhaps it won’t be long before a top coach tries to evolve the

system again (cough, Pep). But for Xavi, who’s working with a rapidly changing squad, it would be a little too ambitious in my book. At least for now. _What system do you think Xavi will

use next season? Let me know in the comments!_ _Be sure to follow the page for more tactical analysis on FC Barcelona._