Four months out, nomination schedule still up in the air

Where does the 2008 calendar stand? It is still in flux, which is rather remarkable considering that voting is expected to begin in just about four months. Some tentative dates were set

months ago, but those are certain to change. -- So how are things likely to shake out? Iowa and New Hampshire are determined to maintain their status as hosts of the first caucuses and

primary, respectively. Iowa Gov. Chet Culver insists his state will not vote this year. The state is likely to move up its caucuses to somewhere around Jan. 3-6. New Hampshire law requires a

seven-day cushion between its vote and any “similar” contest, to avoid diluting its impact. With Michigan discussing a Jan. 15 primary, there has been speculation New Hampshire might waive

the requirement, but Secretary of State Bill Gardner rules that out. “It’s the law,” Gardner says. -- What about those states -- Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming

-- that seem ready to defy the national parties by scheduling their vote ahead of the windows set for them? There is talk of a face-saving compromise in which some states could vote when

they please, but apportion their delegates in a separate process. That would allow them to avoid the sanctions -- refusal to have some or all of their delegates seated at next summer’s

nominating conventions -- that the national parties are threatening. Saturday’s announcement that leading Democrats would focus on four early states offers some clarity to the Democratic

calendar. But plenty of questions remain. -- Will the threat of sanctions bring states back in line? That’s unclear, but state party leaders don’t seem too worried -- or least that’s what

they say. Many figure the eventual nominees will be more concerned with unity than meting out punishment. “There will be great pressure for a harmonious and consensus-filled convention

without acrimony about who gets seated and who doesn’t,” said Jeff Timmer, executive director of the Michigan Republican Party, who predicted any unhappiness by national party leaders “will

have diminished significantly by that time.” -- What about California? The state has moved its primary to Feb. 5, along with more than a dozen other states, including Georgia, Illinois,

Missouri, New York and Tennessee, which will result in the single biggest day of balloting in primary history. That date falls within the prescribed window. The candidates, meantime, are

scrambling to compete in what amounts to a national primary. -- When will all this be resolved? That’s uncertain. Florida was given 30 days, as of Aug. 25, to come back with a plan that will

satisfy the Democratic National Committee or risk having its 210 delegates barred from the Denver convention. Whatever happens in Florida will likely set the pattern for Michigan and any

other state that considers violating the national party rules. On the Republican side, states have been given until Tuesday to submit their plans to the national party. Florida, Michigan,

New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming risk sanctions -- the loss of half of their delegates -- for scheduling their vote ahead of Feb. 5, the date prescribed by the Republican National

Committee. Sometime before year’s end, the party will issue its formal “call to convention.” Any state that violates the national committee’s guidelines by moving up after that would lose

90% of its delegates to the Minneapolis convention. -- [email protected] -- (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX) The calendar January Jan. 5: Wyoming GOP caucuses Jan. 14: Iowa caucuses

(tentative, may move up) Jan. 15: Michigan primary (tentative) Jan. 19: South Carolina GOP (tentative), Nevada caucuses Jan. 22: New Hampshire (tentative, may move up) Jan. 29: South

Carolina Democrats, Florida (Ohio is considering a proposal to move up its primary to this date from March 4) February Feb. 1: Maine GOP caucuses Feb. 5: Alabama, Alaska caucuses, Arkansas,

Arizona, California, Colorado (Democratic caucuses; GOP likely to move its caucuses to this date also), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic caucuses), Illinois, Kansas

(Democratic caucuses), Minnesota caucuses, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic caucuses), New York, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (GOP state

convention only) Feb. 7: Hawaii GOP (tentative) Feb. 9: Kansas GOP caucuses, Louisiana Feb. 10: Maine Democrats Feb. 12: Maryland, Virginia, District of Columbia Feb. 19: Hawaii Democrats,

Washington (nonbinding “beauty contest”), Wisconsin March March 4: Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont March 8: Wyoming Democrats March 11: Mississippi April April 22:

Pennsylvania May May 6: Indiana, North Carolina May 13: Nebraska, West Virginia May 20: Kentucky, Oregon May 27: Idaho June June 3: Montana, South Dakota August Aug. 25-28: Democratic

National Convention in Denver September Sept. 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis All dates as of Aug. 31. -- Source: Associated Press MORE TO READ