A Personal Appeal

It is now clear that BJP high command and RSS have completely fallen on prime minister, Narender Modi’s ‘Charisma’ to win five state polls which is evident from a personal appeal made by PM

to the voters of Madhya Pradesh; and a decision not to project any leader as chief ministerial face including present chief minister, Shiv Raj Chouhan. Political observers do not rule out an

identical letter from Modi for the people of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram thereby focusing on his personality and promise to change their fate which seems to be on the

analogy of Mrs Indira Gandhi’s authoritarian control and solo dominance over organization. In Mrs Gandhi’s era, Congress party cadres and leaders were completely dependent on her to win

every election for them and history is repeating itself in Modi’s epoch though the outcome of ensuing assembly polls is embedded in mystery and uncertainty. Opinions differ Opinions are

divided about the impact of victory and losses in these state polls in Nov next month. One school of thought says that if BJP is defeated in these elections then the outcome will have no

impact on 2024 polls as voters’ preference is different when it comes to elect central government. BJP lost assembly polls in Hindi heartland but it swept Lok Sabha polls by winning 61 out

65 seats which included 24(25) Rajasthan, 28(29) MP and 9(11) in Chhattisgarh and it was primarily owing to Modi wave and nationalistic agenda. Modi’s popularity has gone very high at

international level and he commands maximum acceptance in the eyes of electorates in India. Experts say that BJP will be armed with Hindutva which is bound to be strengthened after the

inauguration of Ram Temple in January and it will be exploited to the hilt. BJP has got vast resources and RSS will use its well-oiled machinery to ensure success of the party candidates in

Lok Sabha polls. BJP will try to convince about the spectacular performance of NDA Government and strong leadership of Modi which made it possible to abrogate article 370, adopt 33 percent

women reservation bill in parliament besides On the contrary critics believe that if BJP loses state polls then it is bound to give back to saffron in parliamentary polls. They say that

there are predominant factors which will upset BJP’s calculations. First, there will be no Pulwama and surgical strikes to create nationwide feelings of nationalism. Second, the popularity

of Congress and opposition parties were at its lowest ebb hence voters did not have an alternative to BJP. Third, Modi’s ‘charisma’ may not be sufficient to neutralize the nine-year

anti-incumbency of NDA Government. Fourth, common people are facing the worst type of skyrocketing prices of essential commodities which has made their survival difficult. Fifth, youths had

voted in large numbers in the country for BJP but now unemployment problem is at its zenith which has angered this dominant section of the society. Sixth, middle class seems to be affected

and response from vary from 2019. Seventh, BJP’s downward journey has been stalled by Congress in Karnataka and AIADMK’s decision to severe ties with BJP has given a jolt in Tamil Nadu. BJP

cannot ride to power without having significant seats from southern states. Finally, the opposition parties have come under the umbrella of I.N.D.I.A. A which can be attributed to their

compulsion of alleged misuse of investigating agencies against them and their leaders. The chances of declaring a PM candidate seems extremely difficult but even if they broadly agree to

share seats and decide not to field candidates against each other than arithmetic of votes may make difference in the final outcome in all states in the country in 2024. Entry of ministers

and MPS To checkmate sitting CM, Shivraj Chouhan, BJP high command surprised its ministers like Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste who figured in the first

list of candidates for MP polls. As per party calculations union ministers may have their influence across the state though they have to yet to prove their statewide appeal amongst the

people. Experts say that the ministers or MPs hardly do micro level management of particular constituencies which should worry them in MP. They may not have the state level stature when

compared with Chouhan who may be sulking as he has not been declared as CM candidate despite being at the helm of affairs.BJP high command and the top brass of RSS have taken a big risk by

making prime minister, Narender Modi as face of the party and refrained from naming chief ministerial candidates in poll bound states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana

and Mizoram. Based on a different analogy, BJP has experimented with new strategy of fielding 24 MPs and 4 union ministers in three poll bound states including MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh

which reflects saffron party’s ‘desperate move and resolve’ to ensure victory in these states to create better narrative for 2024 parliamentary polls. 2nd, it may be aimed at neutralizing

the anguish of the voters who may have to rethink when new faces (MPs and ministers) are fielded from such constituencies. Risk-oriented strategy As per outcome of Karnataka and Himachal

assembly elections, Modi’s all out aggressive campaign and Hindutva did not work, hence if BJP fails to oust congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and C.S. Rao’s ‘Bharat Rashtra Sanithi’

(BRS) in Telangana besides losing MP then it may have direct bearing on 2024 parliamentary elections in 2024.But if the results go in favor of BJP then it may have double impact to ensure

victory of Modi for third successive time. Experts say that BJP’s think tank might have assessed the possible impact of Modi government’s nine-year performance and welfare measures which may

give the weightage to the party’s nominees in the elections in the state polls also. Analysts opine that BJP’s ‘Gujrat Model’ of replacing older generation leaders yielded positive result

in Uttarakhand, Goa and Tripura but it miserably failed to deliver in Karnataka. Now it will be interesting to see whether new strategy to push union ministers and MPs in electoral fray will

work to the advantage of the party or it will backfire? (Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)