All still to play for at 100 days

THE LATEST POLLS SHOW SARKOZY CATCHING UP ON HOLLANDE AND RISING POPULARITY FOR MARINE LE PEN WITH 100 days to go before the presidential election there is still everything to play for,

surveys suggest. A month or so ago Socialist leader François Hollande had a clear lead, however Nicolas Sarkzoy is now catching up. An Ifop study for Le Journal du Dimanche last Sunday gave,

for the first round, 28% Hollande, 26% Sarkozy, 19% Le Pen and 12% Bayrou. However things can even change in a few days - a new Ifop study for Europe 1 and Paris Match has put Le Pen at

21.5%, with Hollande 27%, Sarkozy 23.5% and Bayrou 13%. Since the 1980s there have always been significant shifts in voting intentions in the last few months – most notably in 2002, when

Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of current Front National leader Marine, had a surprise first round win. That came despite the fact that at the 100-day mark a TNS Sofres poll had put him at just

9%, behind the other front runners with 27% and 22%. Another big surprise came in 1995, when Socialist Lionel Jospin came top in the first round, despite being placed third in the polls at

100 days. The last elections, in 2007, were notable for the last-minute surge in support for centrist François Bayrou at the expense of the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal – TNS Sofres

gave him 9% at 100 days and 23% by March 8. President Sarkozy has said he will not officially declare his intention to stand before the end of February or in March. Only at that point will

his campaign officially start. “His dream is to have a non-campaign – declaring yourself as a candidate means the end of your mandate,” said an UMP Party official quoted in Le Parisien.