History shows odds are increasing for a year-end rally

The stock market is poised for a strong finish to the year after proving unusually resilient over the past three months, according to historical data. History shows that when the market has

momentum through the tough seasonal period it just passed, stocks typically keep climbing and post a better-than-average return. The market's September slump appeared to fit some

historical trends, but stocks have been performing better than they traditionally do in recent months. The S & P 500 rose 4.8% from August through October, compared to an average gain of

0.2%, according to Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier. Now, Wall Street has entered its strongest seasonal period, and historical trends say the recent momentum should carry over. The

data points to a strong November and a strong three month period. "When August-October is above average, so is November-April with the SPX up 75% of the time on an average return of

4.08% (4.16% median)," Suttmeier said in a note on Tuesday. The late-year run for the stock market is often called the "Santa Clause rally" and is a well-observed historical

trend. However, there have been notable exceptions, including the Christmas Eve sell-off in 2018. To be sure, with the S & P 500 up 23% for the year, the market has already exceeded

expectations for many Wall Street strategists and it's possible the benchmark won't follow historical patterns this year as investors take some money off the table. Some key

factors for whether the stocks will rise in the months ahead include the expected rollout of policy changes from the Federal Reserve and whether the global supply chain issues will hamper

the holiday shopping season, a key period for many retailers. The S & P 500 hit another record high and was trading above 4,600 on Tuesday. -CNBC's Michael Bloom and John Melloy

contributed to this report.