Kaminsky's call: christmas in september for retailers?

As we say goodbye to August, one might think that discretionary retailers have "back-to-school" on their minds. But even though we are kicking off September today, this is not the

case. The concern is Christmas and the all-important fourth quarter. Getty Images In a land of continued economic uncertainty (overused, but applicable), there's one area where I have

firm conviction of difficulty on the horizon. My "C_all-to-Action"_ is to be wary of discretionary retailers. They could struggle mightily as year-end nears and here's why. I

looked at the Jeffries downgrade of Lululemon Athletica this week to "sell." It reminded me of the opinion I expressed earlier in the summer to be careful with this name. As people

continue to downsize, this is an example of a company that could get hurt. As retailers attempt to figure out inventory for Christmas, look for them to err of the side of conservatism. The

good feeling that is needed to ramp up on labels is lacking. Those that might suffer along with Lululemon are Abercrombie & Fitch and Urban Outfitters. When budgeting for Christmas

shopping and big-ticket items, consumers could very well likely put the clampdown on these discretionary retailers. Too early to think Christmas? Not by a longshot. Forget the new school

wears and focus on what buyers will not be wearing in December. PROGRAMMING NOTE: "The Strategy Session," hosted by David Faber and Gary Kaminsky, airs weekdays at Noon ET on CNBC.

DISCLOSURE: _Gary Kaminsky does not hold any equity positions. _ DISCLAIMER: The content of this blog is published in the United States of America and persons who access it agree to do so

in accordance with applicable U.S. law. All opinions expressed in this blog are solely the opinions of Gary Kaminsky and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL or their parent

company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated on television, radio, internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Kaminsky as a specific

inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Mr. Kaminsky’s opinions are based upon information he considers

reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Kaminsky, CNBC, its affiliates and/or

subsidiaries are not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this website. Mr. Kaminsky’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No part

of Mr. Kaminsky’s compensation from CNBC is related to the specific opinions he expresses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Mr. Kaminsky nor CNBC guarantees any

specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this website or on the show. Strategies or investments discussed

may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show may not be suitable for you. This material

does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent

decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this website or on the show. Before acting on information on this website or on the show, you should consider whether it is suitable

for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.