Harris leads trump in pennsylvania among likely voters

Vice  President Kamala Harris (D) leads former President Donald Trump (R) 50% to 47% among voters overall in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump leads Harris by 8 points with voters 50 and

older. Sen. Bob Casey (D) leads Dave McCormick (R) by 4 points among voters overall, but McCormick holds a 5 point lead with older voters. Over one quarter of older voters are

ticket-splitting swing voters. Trump leads Harris by 5 points and Casey leads McCormick by 7 points among these voters. There is a large gender gap, with Harris up 19 points among women and

Trump leading by 16 points with men. Among voters 50 and older, Trump leads by 8 points. The gender gap persists among older voters; among women 50 and older, the candidates are tied,  while

Trump is favored among men 50 and older by 17 points. Ninety-one percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, a 6 point increase since

AARP Pennsylvania’s first poll, released in May. While immigration, inflation and rising prices, and the economy and jobs are top issues among voters in Pennsylvania, the vast majority of

voters 50 and over say Social Security, Medicare, helping people stay in their homes as they age, and the cost of utilities and health care are all extremely or very important issues they

will consider when deciding how to vote. More than 8 in 10 older voters in Pennsylvania prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices.

METHODOLOGY AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Pennsylvania. The firms interviewed 1,398 likely

voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters

ages 50 and older. The survey was done between September  17 and 24, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (24%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web

(41%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Pennsylvania voter list. Find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s coverage of the poll here.  For more

information on how, when and where to vote in Pennsylvania, visit aarp.org/PAVotes. For more information on the voter surveys, please contact Kate Bridges at [email protected]. For media

inquiries, please contact External Relations at [email protected].