​what can the 1918 spanish flu tell us about covid's end? ​​

There have been several coronavirus variants since the start of the pandemic — some have been more dangerous than others — and experts expect there will be more in the future. But, Ozer

says, “there’s nothing to say that the virus will evolve to be more or less virulent, or more or less transmissible. It's just whatever happens to help it in the moment.” Even with the

emergence of a more threatening strain, it’s unlikely that we’ll see the same level of sickness and death that we saw during the dangerous delta variant wave, Murray wrote in a modeling

insights blog, pointing again to increased immunity and greater access to effective treatments. Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, M.D., has also said that even with the appearance

of additional variants, the tools that we have and continue to develop will help “get us to the point where we will not be dominated by this virus — where we can return to a degree of

normality that we all crave for.” Red Cross workers making anti-influenza masks for soldiers in camp. Boston, Massachusetts National Archives Red Cross workers making anti-influenza masks

for soldiers in camp. Boston, Massachusetts One way to help slow down the progression of additional variants is to increase global vaccination rates, says Mark McClellan, M.D., professor of

business, medicine and policy, and founding director of Duke University’s Margolis Center for Health Policy. The vaccines are most effective at protecting against serious illness, but

“they also have an important protection — maybe a 50 percent reduction in [people] getting infected or transmitting COVID at all,” McClellan explained during a recent media briefing. “If the

virus can't transmit between people, then there's just that many fewer chances for it to adapt and change and become better at what it does,” Ozer says. A flu shot was not around

during the 1918 flu pandemic to help curb infection and transmission — the first flu vaccine was developed nearly two decades later. However, today’s seasonal influenza vaccines are expected

to provide some protection against the 1918 virus that's still circulating today, the CDC says. Tamiflu and Flumadine, two antiviral treatments, also are expected to be effective.

APPLYING LESSONS LEARNED Most historical accounts describe the 1918 pandemic in three waves, with the final wave ending in the summer of 1919. However, Barry says the end of the pandemic

wasn’t so exact and that the virus didn’t start behaving like seasonal influenza until 1921. “But by 1920, people didn't pay much attention to it,” Barry explains, even though the virus

continued to rip through major cities and kill many more Americans. “People got tired, just as we’ve gotten tired,” and behavior returned to normal.   Flash forward 100 years and the same

sentiment is playing out. A report from the Kaiser Family Foundation has found that about 3 in 4 U.S. adults, across party lines, say that they are tired or frustrated with the pandemic. A 

poll from Monmouth University found that 7 in 10 Americans agree with the statement that “it’s time we accept that COVID is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives.” 

Precautions taken during Spanish Influenza Epidemic would not permit anyone to ride on street cars without wearing a mask Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Precautions taken during Spanish Influenza Epidemic would not permit anyone to ride on street cars without wearing a mask In a recent _New York Times_ editorial, Barry urged Americans not to

repeat the same mistake that was made in 1920. “I think we need to recognize that it's not over and to respond accordingly,” Barry tells AARP, adding that it’s impossible to predict

when a true end to the pandemic will happen. His advice? “People need to be aware and take the risks that they're comfortable with.” Barry offers up the example that he goes out to

breakfast nearly every morning but, considering his own risks, still prefers a table outside. Schaffner expects these so-called “learned behaviors” — opting for outside over inside, or

putting on a mask in a crowded grocery store — will continue for many during a transition from pandemic to endemic. They could even become a more regular part of flu season precautions.

“It’s going to depend on how well we use all the other tools we have, in addition to vaccination, to keep us in something like normalcy in the future,” Duke’s McClellan says. “Part of the

future may be each American kind of having a plan, just like you do for a hurricane or a bad weather event, for what you do if there is a surge to help keep you safe, help keep your family

safe and help keep your community safe.” Staying on top of global efforts should also fit into that picture, Schaffner says. “While we're transitioning from pandemic to endemic here, we

need to work on that around the world, too.” _Rachel Nania writes about health care and health policy for AARP. Previously she was a reporter and editor for WTOP Radio in Washington, D.C. A

recipient of a Gracie Award and a regional Edward R. Murrow Award, she also participated in a dementia fellowship with the National Press Foundation._ TIMELINE OF THE 1918 FLU PANDEMIC

_March 1918_ * Outbreaks of flu-like illness are first detected in the U.S. * More than 100 soldiers at Camp Funston in Fort Riley, Kansas, become ill with flu. * Sporadic flu activity

spreads unevenly throughout the U.S., Europe and possibly Asia over the next six months. _September 1918_ * The second wave of flu emerges at Camp Devens, just outside of Boston, and at a

naval facility in Boston. * Between September and November, a second wave of flu peaks in the U.S. It is highly fatal and responsible for most of the deaths attributed to the pandemic.

_October 1918_ * The 1918 flu pandemic virus kills an estimated 195,000 Americans during October. * Philadelphia is hit hard: Cold-storage plants are used as temporary morgues and packing

crates are used as coffins, and hundreds of bodies await burial. * Chicago and other U.S. cities close theaters, movie houses and night schools, and prohibit public gatherings. * San

Francisco’s Board of Health requires any person serving the public to wear masks and recommends all residents wear masks in public. _December 1918_ * Public health officials begin education

programs about the dangers of coughing and sneezing. * Public health experts encourage stores and factories to stagger opening and closing hours and for people to avoid using public

transport when possible. _January 1919_ * A third wave of influenza occurs in the winter and spring of 1919, killing many more. This third wave subsides in the summer. _Source: CDC_