Nursing home deaths from covid-19 surge as vaccinations lag

COVID-19 PROTECTIONS LAGGING The recent increases in cases and deaths track with similar surges in past years of the pandemic, says AARP’s Ari Houser, a senior methods adviser and coauthor

of the analysis. In the last three years, nursing homes have seen a winter peak in COVID-19 impacts, but also a late summer or fall spike in August or September. “This seasonal pattern that

we have observed during the last three years appears to be occurring again,” he says. This time around, death rates appear to be lower than those reported at this time during past years:

During four-week periods from late July to late August in 2021 and 2022, roughly 1,000 monthly deaths were reported. AARP’s recent count is roughly a third of that. But Houser warns that

this figure is likely a “more severe undercount than usual,” due to nursing homes lagging in submitting their COVID-19 data to the government. Also, the recent surges “are not done yet, and

there is every reason to also expect a larger wave in the winter,” he says. For example, two weeks of more recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that

both cases and deaths continued to rise in nursing homes from Aug. 20 through to Sep. 3, making nine consecutive weeks of rising resident cases and 11 straight weeks of rising staff cases.

Also, while deaths are currently tracking lower, other impacts, including infection rates, are tracking at similar or worse levels than past years. Priya Chidambaram, a senior policy analyst

at health policy nonprofit KFF, who also tracks COVID-19 in nursing homes, agrees that the death rates are “concerning.” “Any number of preventable deaths is never acceptable,” she says,

“and, ultimately, these numbers can be mitigated further if more work is done to protect this population.” Tackling lagging vaccination rates in these facilities is critical, Chidambaram

adds. As of late August, only about 62 percent of residents nationwide were up to date on their shots, AARP’s analysis found. That rate “falls far short” of earlier COVID-19 inoculation

rates for nursing home residents, AARP’s Houser says, which peaked at 88 percent fully vaccinated in May 2022, and 75 percent boosted in October 2022. In some states, the number of residents

up to date on shots as of late August was particularly low. Arizona reported that number at only 44 percent of nursing home residents, while Alabama and Nevada each reported that only 51

percent of those residents were up to date. South Dakota reported the highest rate of nursing home residents up to date at 79 percent. Up-to-date vaccination rates among nursing home

workers, who can spread the virus to residents, also lagged, with just 25 percent of workers nationwide having received their recommended number of shots. In states like Alabama, Arizona and

Mississippi, less than 15 percent of workers were up to date. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C., reported the highest rate of staff up to date with COVID-19 vaccines at 57 percent. AARP’s ongoing

analysis, conducted by the AARP Public Policy Institute and the Scripps Gerontology Center at Miami University in Ohio, draws primarily on data from the Nursing Home COVID-19 Public File by

the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Most U.S. nursing homes are federally certified and required to submit data to the government each week. Read more about the analysis here.